Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   8
TOTAL HURRICANES:         3
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

Hurricane HUMBERTO and INVEST 94L are the main areas of concern.  Water vapor imagery indicates that dry air is still a factor in the Atlantic basin.  Africa has gone to sleep once again.  Again, as we get into OCT., we’ll have to monitor the Central American Gyre or CAG for any areas of development.  I have links to articles on the CAG at the end of this synopsis.

IF forecast conditions for the MJO come to fruition, I still expect some kind of increase in activity, although the amount is unknown given slight discrepancies in the MJO forecast and CHI200 anomalies predictions.  The MJO is currently stalled in the “null” phase, but is still forecast to enter the most favorable phases by October, with a strong signal indication:
CURRENT MJO PHASE

MJO PHASE SPACE FORECAST

ECMWF EPS MJO FORECAST

HUMBERTO becomes the third hurricane of the season.  Satellite loop imagery indicates HUMBERTO continues to become much better organized, and in the last few frames, an eye feature looks to be developing.
HUMBERTO SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on HUMBERTO:
11:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 26
Location: 22.3N;57.7W
Moving: NW 5 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb / 28.91 in.
Max sustained: 90 mph
HUMBERTO was moving toward the NW.  Again, as mentioned yesterday with the possible interaction with INVEST 94L, both systems could have an effect on each others future steering if we get what is known as the Fujiwhara effect.  However based on analysis, the majority of global models, hurricane models and consensus tend to indicate this is less likely.
FUJIWHARA EFFECT EXPLAINED (CLICK LINK)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

Based on current global model runs, the models pretty much indicate each system remaining on 2 different paths.  Based on this, and my analysis of current forecast steering layers maps which have been consistent, I have to agree at the moment with the 12Z track guidance, until I can actually see if the interaction of both systems becomes closer than forecast.  I currently prefer a blend of the TVCA consensus, OFCI (Official NHC track), and HWFI track, currently agree with the NHC forecast track.
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST MAP

RIP CURRENTS


As of analysis this morning, HUMBERTO was still under the effect of some slight to moderate shear however, shear tendency values indicated shear continues to relax, and the established upper outflow pattern will have a negating effect on this shear.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER AIR MAP HUMBERTO


Based on the forecast wind shear pattern from global models, especially the ECMWF, wind shear is forecast to begin to improve over both systems in about 24 hours, with a well defined radial shear pattern forecast to develop in about 48 hours, along with a favorable upper level outflow pattern.  It is noted that HUMBERTO will be within the more favorable pattern with favorable TPW and mid level relative humidity values.  HUMBERTO will also being entering a little higher OHC within approximately 24 hours time.  HUMBERTO is showing signs of rapid intensification, and based on the forecast conditions analyzed and mentioned, I expect this trend to continue throughout today, into tomorrow.  Based on this, and current intensity guidance, I currently have to agree with the NHC intensity guidance however I am a little on the weaker side of max. intensity, and HUMBERTO should become a major hurricane:
NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE

I will continue to monitor HUMBERTO for any significant changes to track and intensity during the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, the NHC has designated a HIGH (90%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days, for INVEST 94L.  
94L SATELLITE LOOP


NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

As of the 12Z ATCF BTK update, the following information was available on INVEST 94L:
8:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 26
Location: 20.3N;74.0W
Moving: WNW 10 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
The INVEST was currently moving to the WNW (285 degrees).  Based on what I stated about the proximity earlier regarding HUMBERTO, should the effect mentioned not occur, based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps and configuration of forecast ridging and troughing, and global model animations from this morning run, I currently have to agree with the 12Z track guidance, and the TVCA and Hurricane model.  Forecast steering maps suggest that riding strengthens to the north of 94L and the subtropical ridge positions itself in such a manner, that the “weakness” in steering will be located over the SEUS coastal area.  It is beginning to look more likely we could see 94L make landfall along anywhere from eastern GA, to NC as a Tropical Storm.  I will be monitoring this for any “center” reformations or relocations, which would change the forecast track.  However the majority of the global models from this mornings runs, the hurricane models HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON indicate the track shown in current guidance.
94L 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF GUIDANCE

Based on satellite imagery, 94L has had an increase in convection near the center, and based on current position, the center is located in between the coast of eastern Cuba, and western Hispaniola. Based on analysis of the current wind shear pattern, the system is still under some moderate shear, although it continues to slowly decrease in intensity.  The current shear streamlines indicate that the radial shear pattern which is being forecast, may be trying to take shape. Based on analysis, as mentioned with HUMBERTO, the system will begin to be in more favorable conditions starting in about 24 hours.  By 48 hours, a radial shear pattern, upper level outflow, and increase in moisture will be at favorable levels, but not as favorable as with HUMBERTO.  Based on this, once 94L clears land more and has less land interaction, if forecast conditions pan out, the system should gradually intensify once it reaches the south central Bahamas to central Bahamas.  Again, based on the current intensity forecast, and if track guidance does not change, 94L could make landfall as a Tropical Storm along the SEUS coast in approximately 96 – 120 hours
CIMSS 94L WIND SHEAR

12Z INTENSITY FORECAST

I recommend residents along the SEUS coast monitor the progress of this system closely.  As the forecast for this system becomes more certain, I will be posting more forecast graphics such as 5 day projected rainfall, surface wind speed, etc.  The following is the current wave height forecast from the ECMWF and the Wavewatch 3 forecast models
ECMWF AND WAVEWATCH 3 WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST


From the NHC tropical weather discussion:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located near Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba. An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave by tonight when it moves near the
southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical
depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
Bahamas over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward
over the southwestern Atlantic.

Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing
in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and are likely to spread across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba during
the next day or two. Interests in all of these areas should monitor
the progress of the system. While there remains considerable
uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system,
there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.
Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the
system.

Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 – 7 days.
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE INFORMATION (CLICK LINKS BELOW)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_American_gyre
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/5/mwr-d-16-0411.1.xml

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS