Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   7
TOTAL HURRICANES:         2
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

INVEST 93 L and INVEST 94L are the main areas of concern.  Another wave is near the African west coast, and an increase in convection is noted over the continent.  Water vapor imagery indicates that dry air is still a factor in the Atlantic basin.  Again, as we get into late SEP. and into OCT., we’ll have to monitor the Central American Gyre or CAG for any areas of development.  I have links to articles on the CAG at the end of this synopsis.

IF forecast conditions for the MJO come to fruition, I still expect some kind of increase in activity, although the amount is unknown given slight discrepancies in the MJO forecast and CHI200 anomalies predictions.  The MJO is currently stalled in the “null” phase, but is still forecast to enter the most favorable phases by October, with a strong signal indication:
CURRENT MJO PHASE

MJO PHASE SPACE FORECAST

Gabrielle continues to weaken and is heading for the Azores islands.  A Hurricane Watch remains in effect.  This will be my last on Gabrielle
HURRICANE GABRIELLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Elsewhere, the NHC has designated a HIGH (80%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days, for INVEST 94L.  The ECMWF EPS indicates a 90% probability:
94L SATELLITE LOOP

NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

As of the 12Z ATCF BTK update, the following information was available on INVEST 94L:
8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 24
Location: 17.6N;65.0W
Moving: W 10 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb / 29.88 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
The INVEST was currently moving to the West (280 degrees).  First, I am going to point out that since 94L and 93L are in very close proximity to each other, forecast steering could be somewhat harder, as both systems will influence each other as to which way they actually move.  We could even get a Fujiwhara effect to occur. 
FUJIWHARA EFFECT EXPLAINED (CLICK LINK)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

Based on analysis of forecast steering maps, and animated MSLP anomaly maps from the global models, what SHOULD occur with INVEST 94L is, the system should continue on a general westerly path for the next 24 hours.  Thereafter, I expect more of a WNW motion to ensue, and by 48  – 72 hours into the period, a more NW motion should begin.  Based on the unknowns, given what I have analyzed, this could possibly wind up being a concern for the OBX and Mid Atlantic coastal areas, or it could be affected enough by 93L to begin a more NNE turn, or one scenario even indicates 94L becoming absorbed by 93L down the road and eventually becoming one storm.  This is ALL going to depend on the intensity of both systems, location, and strength of the overall steering pattern.  The stronger of the 2 systems will most likely control the other.  With that said, based on the forecast steering maps, I have to agree with the 12Z guidance and I prefer the current TVCA and HWFI guidance tracks.
INVEST 94L 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on satellite imagery, 94L looks less organized at the moment than does INVEST 93L.  Based on analysis of current wind shear, along with analysis of the ECMWF and current SHIPS diagnostic report, INVEST 94L is under some moderate shear, and is forecast to remain in moderate shear for about the next 48 hours in the period.  Thereafter, wind shear is forecast to reduce, based on the ECMWF wind shear forecast, with a developing radial shear pattern.  The system should be in or near the Southern Bahamas by then, and slow development of a tropical depression should begin.  By 96 hours, the forecast indicates both systems will be under separate radial shear patterns.  Based on this, I would expect 94L to possibly reach depression status in about 72 hours.
CIMSS 94L WIND SHEAR

I will continue to monitor 94L for any significant changes to forecast conditions during the next 48 – 72 hours.

The NHC has designated a HIGH (90%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days for newly designated INVEST 93L.  The ECMWF EPS indicates a 95+% probability:
INVEST 93L SATELLITE LOOP


NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

As of the 12Z ATCF BTK update, the following information was available on INVEST 93L:
8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 24
Location: 19.1N;53.7W
Moving: WNW 20 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in.
Max sustained: 35 mph
The INVEST was moving toward the WNW (300 degrees).  Again, as mentioned above with INVEST 94L, actual steering will depend on how both of these systems interact with each other.  However, based on analysis of the current forecast steering layers maps, INVEST 94L should continue on a general WNW to NW track for the next 48 hours, prior to a small bend to the left in track from 72 – 120 hours, before a recurve is shown.  Based on this, I have to agree with the current track guidance, and prefer the TVCA and HWFI tracks.
93L 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on satellite loop imagery, INVEST 93L looks a bit “healthier” and appears to be coming slowly better organized, though elongated.  Recent shear maps from CIMSS indicated shear has reduced, and may not be as much of an issued
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP 93L

Based on the SHIPS shear forecast, wind shear is supposed to fluctuate between favorable to moderate during the next 72 hours.  However, as discussed with 93L, conditions are forecast to improve, with the development of a radial shear pattern, as well as an upper level outflow pattern for both systems.  Based on analysis of current intensity guidance, and based on the outflow forecast, shear forecast, and surface to mid level moisture forecast, it appears at this time that INVEST 93L will have to more favorable environment, and could become the stronger of the 2 systems.  One item to watch for is, the effect of the outflow of both systems, to see which system may “choke” the other with their upper outflow.  Based on my analysis, I would expect 94L to become a depression a little sooner than INVEST 93L, possibly within the next 48 hours.  The forecast maps are posted below and contain both systems:
ECMWF MSLP FORECAST 96 HOURS

ECMWF TPW 96 HOURS

ECMWF 500 RH 96 HOURS

ECMWF WIND SHEAR 96 HOURS

ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE (OUTFLOW) 96 HOURS
Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 – 7 days.
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE INFORMATION (CLICK LINKS BELOW)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_American_gyre
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/5/mwr-d-16-0411.1.xml

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS