I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 2
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin with a slight increase in moisture over a portion of the ITCZ across the African continent. A Tropical Wave is noted near 20W, and shows a moisture plume surrounding it.

The NHC indicates no tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC in the 06Z Surface Analysis indicated a tropical wave near 20W, 39W and 74W. The wave located near 20W is surrounded in a plume of moisture, despite the dry surrounding atmosphere. This would most likely be what we term as a Marsupial Paradigm, which is protected from the SAL layer. The following is an article on this phenomenon:
https://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/marsupial.html
06Z CIMSS TPW IMAGE

Based on my analysis today, the 00Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast is still indicating a 70% probability of development near the NE / Mid Atlantic coast in 72 hours, and a 20% probability with the wave south of the Cape Verde islands
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS

Although this is being shown at the moment, AI and ENSEMBLE AI models are the only models indicating development near the NE area. None of the global deterministic models indicate this. The only low pressure shown by the deterministic models is over land in the NE. Analysis this morning indicated that within the forecast timeframe, atmospheric conditions would be marginal at best as far as wind shear and surface to mid level moisture values. None of the models indicate a low over water, as seen in the ECMWF MSLP 72 hour forecast map.
ECMWF MSLP FORECAST

In addition, the MJO )Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to remain pretty much in PHASE 6 for pretty much the entire month. However, close in development does sometime occur (as seen by the PHASE 6 observed analysis map, designated by orange and red) in the area designated by the cyclone formation probability. The most favorable phase of the MJO for homegrown / in close development is PHASE 8. Although the CHI200 anomalies map indicates some slight upward motion (divergence in the upper atmosphere), the other conditions will only be marginal at best. Again, until I see more model consistency, and the deterministic models begin to indicate something, I am not looking for development at this time, but will continue to monitor the situation.
MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

PHASE 6 AND 7 OBSERVED CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT CHART

Regarding the Tropical Wave near 20W, the wave is well defined and is showing decent rotation. Wind shear at the moment was only on the order of 5 – 10 kts, south of the Cape Verde islands.

Analysis of the wind shear forecast indicates wind shear should remain low during the next 48 hours, with only a partial radial pattern however. Analysis of surface to mid level moisture indicates conditions to be favorable for some possible slow development, however, the unfavorable factor standing in the way is, once again, PHASE 6 of the MJO does not favor development in the Atlantic MDR region. PHASES 1, 2 and 3 are the favored phases for development in the Atlantic, with phases 2 and 3 being the most positive. The AI and AI ENSEMBLE models are indicating some type of development near the central Atlantic MDR in about 6 – 7 days, however I am trying to understand this, as there will be a lack of upper divergence based on phases 6 of the MJO, and sinking air from the upper level of the atmosphere, based on the CHI200 anomalies forecast (noted by brown shading). Based on all of this, we could see the wave near 20W try to become a little more organized during the next 48 hours, before dry air begins to affect it. As far as development in 6 – 7 days, I’m not betting on it given the sinking air that is forecast, though the shear pattern seems somewhat favorable.

MJO PHASES 2 AND 3 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT MAP

CHI200 FORECAST 144 AND 168 HOURS


Regardless, I will continue to monitor the situation during the next 72 hours for any significant changes to forecast conditions.

I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.