I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 2
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin and over the African continent. The Tropical Wave I was monitoring yesterday is now located near 13N;30W. The wave is now being affected by dry air, which is sooner than what was projected by forecast models yesterday. Based on the dry air out ahead of it, I do not expect anything to become of this. I will continue monitoring the EATL for any significant changes.

The NHC indicates no tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

Based on my analysis today, the 00Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast has greatly reduced its probabilities for cyclone development during the next 24 – 72 hours.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


AI and AI ENSEMBLE models are still indicating some sort of development in the CATL within the next 5 – 7 days



Based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast, wind shear will be somewhat relaxed, with shear out of the east. However surface to mid level moisture and humidity values will only be marginal to somewhat unfavorable at that time for development to occur. These models are beginning to hint however of a possible low south of the Cape Verde islands during this timeframe. Analysis indicates wind shear to become favorable with a brief radial pattern, and favorable surface to mid level moisture. These conditions would tend to favor development over that area, however given the state of the MJO forecast forecast to still be in PHASE 6, and trending to 7, and the forecast CHI200 anomalies indicating sinking air (brown and orange shading) from the upper levels over the area, there will be little to no upper divergence to aid in development. The most favorable phases for development in the MDR are MJO phases 2 and 3

Analysis of the deterministic models still indicates no tropical development during the next 7 days.
ECMWF MSLP FORECAST

MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

PHASE 6 AND 7 OBSERVED CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT CHART

MJO PHASES 2 AND 3 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT MAP

CHI200 ECMWF ENS MEAN AUG. 10 – AUG. 15 FORECAST

ECMWF 168 HOUR CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST

Regardless, I will continue to monitor the situation during the next 72 – 168 hours for any significant changes to forecast conditions.

I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.