I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 2
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin and over the African continent, with another increase in moisture over the ITCZ. An area of thunderstorms is noted east of the Florida peninsula, being generated from a surface trough of low pressure, remnant of a CATL Tropical Wave. There has been an increase in the “African Wave Train”

The NHC indicates no tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 12Z this morning.
12Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

Based on my analysis today, the 00Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast is now indicating a 10% probability of development of a surface trough that should cross the Florida peninsula from the remnant of a Tropical Wave, and a 70% probability for development of a Tropical wave which will exit the African coast.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


96 – 144 HOURS

Regarding the Gulf probability, although the wind shear pattern is forecast to be a little better than marginal, the area will be plagued by drier air at the surface and mid levels based on analysis of precipitable water and mid level humidity values. Based on this, I am not expecting development in the Gulf during the next 5 days.

The AI and some ENSEMBLE MODELS are still indicating development in the eastern / central Atlantic during the next 3 – 6 days. Analysis of the ECMWF deterministic model does indicate conditions to now improve during this timeframe, however the most favorable shown are beyond 72 hours, with the premise of a reduction in wind shear and a developing radial shear pattern, very favorable surface moisture levels as well as favorable mid level moisture. Analysis of the forecast 200 mb streamline pattern is indicating a slightly divergent upper level pattern, which is now backed up by the current CHI200 mb anomalies forecast indicating weak upward motion by the faint green shading.

Analysis of the deterministic models now indicate a weak area of lower pressure, along with the above mentioned forecast conditions over the area between 120 – 168 hours out in the forecast period. Based on this, although the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is still forecast to remain in phase 6 and transitioning to phase 7, development can sometimes occur in the central to western Atlantic in the MDR region. The following is from further research I performed over the past 2 days:
Yes, tropical development can still occur in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) during MJO Phase 6, though Phase 6 generally places the enhanced convective pulse over the Western and Central Pacific rather than the Atlantic. The MJO is only one modulating factor; local sea surface temperatures, African Easterly Wave strength, and vertical wind shear ultimately dictate cyclogenesis.

MJO Phase 6 and the Atlantic:
Suppressed vs. Enhanced: Phase 6 typically corresponds to enhanced rising motion in the Pacific, which often places a suppressed, sinking-motion regime over parts of the tropical Atlantic.

Not an Absolute Block: A suppressed MJO phase reduces the overall odds of cluster thunderstorms, but it does not completely shut down the basin.

Other Drivers: If high ocean heat content, a potent African Easterly Wave, or localized low shear override the large-scale MJO signal, a system can still organize.

ECMWF MSLP, PWAT, 700MB RH, WIND SHEAR, AND 200 MB FORECAST





ECMWF ENS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST

MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

PHASE 6 AND 7 OBSERVED CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT CHART

Now, this does not mean development will occur definitely, but conditions look better than they did in analysis a couple days ago. In order for development to occur, forecast conditions would have to develop as shown, and remain with the wave. Based on the fact that conditions shown are not optimal, any development would be slow to occur. So, this is going to be one of those wait and see circumstances. I will continue to monitor this during the next 72 – 96 hours for any significant changes in forecast conditions.

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.