I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. This synopsis is titled as SPECIAL, as the office is closed on the weekends.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 2
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, however with a slight increase of activity within the ITCZ and water vapor imagery indicating still quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin, with somewhat of a moisture increase in the EATL and within a portion of the ITCZ. The wave which is forecast to exit Africa and merge with the AOI is just getting ready to exit Africa.

The NHC has introduced a LOW (10%) probability for tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days for areas 2 and 3, and a MEDIUM (60%) probability for area 1
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

To save time and space, I will be focusing on the area with the higher probability for development. Area #2 and #3, while initial conditions are somewhat favorable to marginal, analysis indicates that conditions during the next 48 – 72 hours will become less favorable for development. The following is from the NHC regarding these areas:

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave is located about midway between the coast of west Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. Some gradual development of this system is
possible through mid-week while it moves quickly westward across the
central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become
less favorable for development later in the week as the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles.

3. Western Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles northwest of
Bermuda is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some development of this system is possible during the next couple
of days while it moves quickly eastward, well to the north of
Bermuda, across the western and central subtropical Atlantic. The
system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending
its chances of formation after Wednesday.

I will however continue to monitor these areas, for any significant changes to forecast conditions.

Based on my analysis today, the 00Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast is now indicating a 80% probability of development of the Tropical Wave to the south of the Cape Verde islands, and a 90% probability in 48 – 96 hours.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 96 HOURS

Analysis of the deterministic models and utilizing the ECMWF deterministic model, now indicates a weak area of low pressure (1012mb), in approx. 24 hours after mergence with a tropical wave currently located over the west African continent. Analysis of current conditions indicate favorable conditions with the presence of a radial shear pattern, and ample surface to mid level moisture. By 72 hours in the forecast period, wind shear will still be favorable with a radial pattern (indicates the lack of any zonal wind shear), and surface to mid level moisture will be very favorable based on TPW and mid level relative humidity values. Upper level winds will however only be marginally divergent based on analysis of the 200 mb streamline pattern, and CHI200 anomalies forecast. Based on this, although the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is still forecast to remain in phase 6 and transitioning to phase 7, development can sometimes occur in the central to western Atlantic in the MDR region. The following is from further research I performed over the past 2 days:
Yes, tropical development can still occur in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) during MJO Phase 6, though Phase 6 generally places the enhanced convective pulse over the Western and Central Pacific rather than the Atlantic. The MJO is only one modulating factor; local sea surface temperatures, African Easterly Wave strength, and vertical wind shear ultimately dictate cyclogenesis.

MJO Phase 6 and the Atlantic:
Suppressed vs. Enhanced: Phase 6 typically corresponds to enhanced rising motion in the Pacific, which often places a suppressed, sinking-motion regime over parts of the tropical Atlantic.

Not an Absolute Block: A suppressed MJO phase reduces the overall odds of cluster thunderstorms, but it does not completely shut down the basin.

Other Drivers: If high ocean heat content, a potent African Easterly Wave, or localized low shear override the large-scale MJO signal, a system can still organize.

Based on my analysis, SST’s in the area, and along the current “projected” outline are running from 26.5C – 28.0C (79.7F – 82.4F). Though this is favorable, OHC (Ocean Heat Content) is currently around 35 – 45KJ/cm2. This value is below the 50+ threshold for faster development and sustainment of a tropical system. Near the western edge of the outline however, OHC just meets the threshold. Based on all of the analyzed conditions both current and forecast, and should they materialize and hold for the forecast period, I do believe we may see some slow development of the wave mentioned with decent probability of a tropical depression during the next 72 hours, and possibly a tropical storm by 5 days out in the forecast period which would be named CRISTOBAL, again, if forecast conditions materialize EXACTLY as forecast and maintain through the period.
ECMWF MSLP, PWAT, 700MB RH, WIND SHEAR, AND 200 MB FORECAST 72 HOURS





I do caution on one aspect, though the NHC probability outline indicates pretty much a general “path”, exact path and strength of any system is not known until a well developed low pressure system becomes apparent for guidance models to have a solid core to lock onto. IF and when guidance models are initiated, these will be included in future synopses

I will continue to monitor this area during the next 72 hours for any significant changes in forecast conditions.

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.