Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you read in the entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown. 

I will be out of the office tomorrow, Aug. 27 to celebrate my birthday, and intend to resume forecasting on Thursday the 28th

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   6
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

This morning you’ll note the Atlantic basin is much more quiet.  Two tropical waves are noted over the African continent.

As of the CIMSS TPW 1200Z update, Tropical Waves were noted at the approximate locations.  Black lines represent the approximate wave axis.
CIMSS 12Z TPW ANALYSIS

I have no change in my forecast thinking, with all of the forecast parameters I spoke of yesterday, in that we will see this “short” quiet period in activity as the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) remains in phases 4 and 5 for the remainder of the month, then moving rapidly into phase 6 and 7.  By the beginning of Sep., the rotation enters into phase 8, and slows its motion greatly, with the forecast calling for the MJO to remain in phases 1 and 2 through Sep.
MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL

Current vertical instability over the MDR remains somewhat below climatology, but is creeping upward slowly.  Based on the graph, it appears instability may make a good jump to above climatology, based on the dots seen above the climatology line at he beginning of Sep.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC MDR VERTICAL INSTABILITY

The CHI200 anomalies map from the updated ECMWF EPS model, indicates sinking air (motion) noted by the brown colors, and rising air (motion) noted by green / lighter colors.  Though upward motion is not as strong as in the recent JMA CHI200 map, which is usually very accurate, here is a little tidbit I wanted to share.  While development would be favored more within the darkest green areas, this doesn’t necessarily mean development will not occur in the very faint green to extremely light brown areas.  What occurs is, if you’ll look at the dark brown in the Pacific near the U.S., what happens is, this sinking air as it “spreads out” to the east, slows down the easterly trade winds over the Caribbean and Atlantic, allowing for convergence to occur, and for heat and energy to build up in these basins.  Once again, going back to last season, one of the main factors was the colder surface temperatures over the northern 1/3 of the U.S. (which is in the forecast for the 1st week of Sep.).  The surprising thing was, the MJO was running in phases 5, 6, and 7 and a lot of the systems developed where noted in the historical density observations.  This may have been due to we were in La Nina conditions, along with some other different seasonal factors.  Regardless, there should still be a notable increase in activity at the end of the first week of Sep. or beginning of the 2nd week.
2024 HURRICANE SEASON LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2024&basin=atl

ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST SEP.05 – SEP. 10JMA CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST INDICATING STRONG PHASE 2 MJO STATUS SEP. 06 – SEP 19

The ECMWF EPS  cyclone formation probability forecast is now indicating a 35 – 40% probability for cyclone development in 7 days near the Cape Verde islands.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 120 – 168 HOURS 

All the global models indicate an area of low pressure forming near that area, or a little further toward the CATL from day 7, onward.  I will use the current run of the ECMWF in order to save space.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST 168 HOURS

Elsewhere, I am not expecting any development for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS