I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good afternoon everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding Tropical Weather Outlook issuance and Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF we get a consistent probability indicating development, or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical system will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES :        4 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:        3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:       1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 0
TOTAL HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

Analysis of GOES satellite loop imagery indicates Tropical Waves near 77W, 56W, 45W, and 33W Longitude.
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

CURRENT WIND SHEAR

The NHC does not indicate any development during the next 7 days
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Analysis of the global models, with the GFS agreeing with the ECMWF at the moment, indicate lowering pressures in the BOC (Bay Of Campeche) in about 72 hours. Based on analysis this afternoon, it does appear that the lowering pressures will be due to the remnant of EPAC system CRISTINA. I am basing this on the 12Z forecast track guidance in that both the OFFICIAL track guidance and the TVCA consensus indicate the remnant crossing into the BOC. In 72 hours, conditions are forecast to become favorable with a reduction in wind shear and a developing, weak radial shear pattern, some semi-favorable divergence at 200 mb, and very favorable precipitable water amounts and surface to mid level humidity values, providing ample moisture. This is currently forecast to last out to 96 hours in the forecast period from 12Z this morning. Thereafter, wind shear begins to increase and upper level divergence ends. Given that these conditions will be short lived, and the area will be based off a remnant of a Tropical Depression, I do not expect development of this. Remnant moisture could bring increased precipitation chances to extreme southern Texas.

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast indicates a reduction in probability probability for development between days 3 – 5 and 4 – 6
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY


RAL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST (72 HOURS)

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST, 200 MB STREAMLINE, 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST




NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

I do not expect tropical storm formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.