I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good afternoon everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding Tropical Weather Outlook issuance and Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF we get a consistent probability indicating development, or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical system will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES :        4 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:        3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:       1 – 2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

Analysis of GOES satellite loop imagery indicates a well defined Tropical Wave south of Cuba / Hispaniola.
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED)

As of the NHC 12Z Surface analysis, Tropical Waves were located near 22W, 34W, 46W, and 73W Longitude. The black lines indicate the axis of the waves.
CIMSS TPW ANALYSIS

CURRENT WIND SHEAR

The NHC does not indicate any development during the next 7 days
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Analysis of the global models, with the GFS agreeing with the ECMWF at the moment, indicate lowering pressures in the BOC (Bay Of Campeche), and developing a weak area of low pressure early on Sat. morning. Previous analysis indicated this may have been due to the Central American Gyre, however updated information seems to indicate this area will be a crossover of current EPAC storm CRISTINA. As lower pressures come to fruition in the area, upper level winds as far as wind shear begin favorable, with a radial shear pattern. As the weak closed low comes together, wind shear is forecast to increase, with a lack of upper divergence at the 200 mb level. Surface and mid level moisture remain very favorable. Based on the fact that the center of EPAC storm CRISTINA is exposed, if it does enter the BOC, it would have a difficult time developing given it would be crossing land as an exposed center, and favorable conditions for the BOC will be very short lived, based on analysis at the moment. Although the ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast indicates a 50% probability, at this time I am not expecting any real development of the area in question. Given how the modeling has fluctuated on forecast conditions, this is going to be a more of a wait and see situation, based on actual real time conditions.

The ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast indicates a 50% probability for development between days 4 – 6
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST (117 HOURS)

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST, 200 MB STREAMLINE, 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST (BLACK CIRCLE INDICATES APPROX. POSITION OF THE LOW)

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes

I do not expect tropical storm formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.