Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 8
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:     0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP

The NHC does not indicate any cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

Based on analysis this morning, I am still seeing “signals” for possible development in the Gulf in approximately 8 – 10 days. Since I’ve mentioned the MJO in my past few forecasts, I’ll focus on some other items since analysis indicated no change in the MJO forecast for favorable conditions to remain toward mid month regarding upward motion at he 200 mb level.

Analysis of ensembles and AI models, as well as the deterministic global models (ECMWF, GFS and CMC) still indicate anywhere from lowering MSLP anomalies, to development of low pressure in the southern Gulf in the Bay of Campeche (of course at varying times and intensity). Analysis of the 850 mb level forecast map from the CPC African desk out to 120 hours (which allows access to central America), indicates this could be an entity of the Central American Gyre (CAG), which is forecast to be on the coastline along Mexico. While there is consistent model agreement, and a slight increase in the ECMWF Cyclone Formation probability forecast, bear in mind, there have been previous seasons where this has occurred, only to have nothing development. Again, just because models are indicating decent signals, it doesn’t always mean development will occur.
CPC GFS 850 MB FORECAST 120 HOURS

Analysis also indicated that within the 8 – 10 day timeframe, wind shear will be over the Gulf which would be detrimental. However, the area will also be under the effect of the right rear entrance region of a 200 mb jetstreak from the sub-tropical jetstream. This feature should produce divergence in the upper atmosphere, which in turn would enhance surface convergence. IF a low pressure center does develop far enough Equatorward, or in the extreme southern edge of the entrance region, it could become “shielded” from the shear. The following was found in research this morning:

Outflow Enhancement and Intensification:
A tropical cyclone relies on a strong “exhaust” system (upper-level outflow) to evacuate mass away from its center, allowing surface pressures to fall and the system to intensify.

The Mechanism: The right rear entrance region features an ageostrophic wind component that pulls air northward toward the jet core, creating massive horizontal divergence aloft.

The Synergy: If a tropical system is positioned in or just south of this right rear entrance region, its convective outflow channels directly into the jet’s natural divergence zone. This massively accelerates the venting of air from the storm’s core, plunging surface pressures and inducing rapid intensification or maintenance of the system.

The Double-Edged Sword: Vertical Wind Shear

Close to the core: Directly entering the jet streak exposes a tropical system to destructive vertical wind shear, which can tilt and tear a pure tropical cyclone apart.

Perfect alignment: For a tropical system to benefit from the right rear quadrant without being destroyed by shear, it usually sits on the equatorward fringe of the entrance region. Here, it reaps the rewards of the upper-level divergence field while keeping its core insulated from the maximum wind speeds of the jet core.

So, the bottom line here at the moment is, there is nothing to stress about as we have nothing definite yet, and IF development is going to occur, the interaction with the jetstream will have to pan out “exactly” as mentioned. This means that us as forecasters should have more accurate information to provide you, once we can see exactly how conditions are coming together.

I will continue monitoring the situation during the next 5 days.

Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 days.
ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC MSLP FORECAST MAPS



ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 240 HOURS

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST

ECMWF JETSTREAM FORECAST

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.