Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 8
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:     0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP

The NHC has once again placed a 10% probability on the remnant of FAY.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

Based on analysis this morning, I am still seeing “signals” for possible development in the Gulf in approximately 7 – 9 days. The MJO forecast has introduced more members into phase 2, with the forecast calling for the MJO to hang out in the favorable phases for at least the next 10 days, with the CHI200 anomalies forecast indicating moderate to strong upward motion in the means.
ECMWF EPS MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

02 OCT. – 07 OCT.

07 OCT. – 12 OCT.

Analysis of ensembles and AI models indicate the strongest signals for the Gulf, however the global deterministic models are now beginning to waiver on whether closed low pressure develops, or if we just see lowering MSLP anomalies. The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation probabilities forecast has backed off slightly as well.

Analysis also indicated that within the 7 – 9 day timeframe, wind shear will be over the Gulf which would be detrimental. However, the area will also be under the effect of the right rear entrance region of a 200 mb jetstreak from the sub-tropical jetstream. This feature should produce divergence in the upper atmosphere, which in turn would enhance surface convergence. IF a low pressure center does develop far enough Equatorward, or in the extreme southern edge of the entrance region in the extreme southern portion of the Bay of Campeche, it could become “shielded” from the shear.

So, the bottom line here at the moment is, there is nothing physically out there at the moment, and IF development is going to occur, the interaction with the jetstream will have to pan out “exactly” as mentioned as far as shielding anything from wind shear. This means that us as forecasters should have more accurate information to provide you, once we can see exactly how conditions are coming together. In other words, another “wait and see” type of situation. I will stress once again, I have seen seasons where ALL of the models were in agreement of developing a system, along with high probabilities, and when the forecast time came about…NOTHING. IF anything does occur, just know that I and a colleague of mine, Wayne Brumbaugh from the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season group on Facebook will be all over it.

I will continue monitoring the situation during the next 5 days.

Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 days.
ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC MSLP FORECAST MAPS



ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 216 HOURS

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.