1 day ago
21
PROTECT YOUR DNA WITH QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY
Orgo-Life the new way to the future Advertising by AdpathwayDisclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED
I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
Good day everyone!
If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.
The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES : 3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1 – 2
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1
The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP 
The NHC has indicated LOW (20%) probability of cyclone development for the area W of the Cape Verde islands during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)
Based on analysis this morning, the area of interest west of the Cape Verde islands is currently under marginal conditions, if that. Based on analysis of the ECMWF, wind shear is forecast to increase by Thursday, and shear levels will become unfavorable for any development of this low. In fact, wind shear over the area based on CIMSS analysis is 40 – 50 kts. Shortly thereafter, surface moisture is shown to decrease, and dry air is forecast to intrude at the 500 mb level. Based on this, I currently do not expect development of this area. I will continue to monitor the area for any significant or unforeseen changes in forecast conditions.
The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE
The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS
72 – 120 HOURS
Based on analysis this morning, I am still seeing “signals” for possible development the remainder of the month. At the moment, it is hard to pinpoint “where” something may occur, if at all, however the MJO forecast still indicates the MJO to remain in the favorable phases 2 and 3, with once again, (although a little weaker), the CHI 200 anomalies forecast favoring divergence aloft during the next 10 days. The probability maps above appear to be picking up on the CAG (Central American Gyre) in the W, Caribbean. At the moment, forecast conditions do not appear favorable for development of this feature.
ECMWF EPS MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST
CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST 12 OCT. – 17 OCT.
17 OCT. – 22 OCT.
PHASE 2 AND 3 HISTORICAL OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT (RED AND ORANGE)
ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST MAP INDICATING THE CAG
I will continue monitoring the situation during the next 5 days.
Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)
PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
The Mechanism: The right rear entrance region features an ageostrophic wind component that pulls air northward toward the jet core, creating massive horizontal divergence aloft. [1, 2]
English (US) · 
French (CA) ·