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Orgo-Life the new way to the future Advertising by AdpathwayDisclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
Good day everyone!
If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.
The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES : 3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1 – 2
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1
The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP 
The NHC has dropped the area W of the Cape Verde islands.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)
The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE
The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS
72 – 120 HOURS
Once again, based on analysis of the MJO phase space diagram forecast, and CHI200 anomalies forecast, the MJO is forecast to remain in phases 2 and 3 for the remainder of this month. The CHI200 anomalies forecast still indicates, although at varying intensity, a divergent upper level pattern for the remainder of the month, which favors development over the W. Caribbean, Gulf, and portions of the Atlantic basin. An interesting development is that the ACCESS – S2 phase space diagram forecast indicates a quick cycling of the MJO, with it returning to phases 1 and 2 by Nov.
ECMWF EPS MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST
ACCESS – S2
CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST 13 OCT. – 18 OCT.
18 OCT. – 23 OCT.
23 OCT – 28 OCT
PHASE 2 AND 3 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT (RED AND ORANGE)
Given this, it could be very possible to see another development in the W. Caribbean or Gulf before the month ends. My analysis this morning did reveal a few things, however it doesn’t necessarily indicate development will definitely occur. The following are just some of the “signals” that I (and some of my colleagues) look at when trying to determine possible development areas.
Analysis of the ECMWF indicates at approximately 7 days from now in the forecast period, an area in the Gulf which will have favorable moisture values from the surface, to the 500 mb level, based on PWAT and RH analysis. However this moisture pattern is forecast to be short lived. This area will also be under the effect of the favorable MJO pattern. In addition, indications are there will be a favorable upper level outflow pattern, and radial shear pattern that materialize.
ECMWF 200 MB AND WIND SHEAR FORECAST.
In addition, based on the ECMWF 500 mb anomalies forecast, and the MSLP forecast, a pattern referred to by Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell analytics as the “ridge over troubled water”, is another signal I look at. Strong ridging at these levels, especially over the northern and / or eastern U.S. are usually a precursor for lowering MSLP south or SW of the ridging, as the circulation of the atmosphere flows from high pressure to low pressure.
Again, this does not mean definite development, but, the signals are becoming present, if the forecast conditions are correct.
ECMWF 500 MB AND MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 
I will continue monitoring the situation during the next 5 days.
Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)
PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
The Mechanism: The right rear entrance region features an ageostrophic wind component that pulls air northward toward the jet core, creating massive horizontal divergence aloft. [1, 2]
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