Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       1
MAJOR HURRICANES:     1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP

The NHC does not indicate any tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

First, I’d like to say, I hope my forecasts aren’t boring anyone as I do know I have been posting pretty much the same items. However, you heard me speak of development in either the W. Caribbean or Gulf area almost 2 weeks prior to the development of Isaias.

With that being said, the following would pretty much indicate that the hurricane season may be drawing to an end:
CPC GLOBAL TROPICAL HAZARDS OUTLOOK

However, the following says different:

The updated MJO phase space diagram forecast is indicating more members and a stronger signal into phases 2 and 3, and based on analysis of the MJO CHI200 anomalies forecast, divergence aloft is forecast to remain over the Pacific, eastward into the Gulf, with the “signal” becoming strongest by the end of week 2. I did notice a little note from the CPC Global Tropical Hazards Update:

In the western hemisphere, probabilistic TC tools feature renewed activity signals between 120W and 90W in the wake of TD21, as well as another area in the Bay of Campeche towards the start of the week-2 period. However, the aforementioned subseasonal forcing at the lower-levels is expected to no longer be a factor over this part of tropics, as enhanced trades are beginning to develop north of the equator, lowering outlook confidence for additional TC formation. Therefore, 20% chances are issued to the southwest of Mexico, and no corresponding TC shapes are posted for the Gulf in the Atlantic basin for week-2. Additional TC development is also possible over the subtropical Atlantic where tools maintain modest chances for development. However, no TC-related areas are posted due to large spread in the guidance and high uncertainty as to whether any low that forms will develop subtropical or tropical characteristics. For week-3, 20% chances are again posted across the eastern Pacific where there is some support in the extended range tools for additional development tied to low frequency anomalous westerlies favored closer to the equator.
ECMWF EPS MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST 14 OCT. – 19 OCT.

19 OCT. – 24 OCT.

24 OCT – 29 OCT

PHASE 2 AND 3 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT (RED AND ORANGE)

Based on my analysis, these conditions could allow for another development in the BOC or W, Caribbean, which would be the most probable locations. However, yesterday I had mentioned the forecast of strong ridging occurring over the U.S. (northern U.S. at 500 mb, and eastern U.S. at the surface). When this occurs, surface pressures have a tendency to lower toward the south to SW.

It just so happens that in this mornings analysis, the global deterministic models are indicating development of low pressure system anywhere from over the Bahamas, to off of the Mid Atlantic coast at around 7 – 8 days in the current forecast period. Since the models are just now showing this, I will be looking for run to run consistency. Based on my analysis of the surface winds forecast from the ECMWF, IF anything were to develop, it may be sub-tropical based on the wind field where maximum winds would be well away from the center. Again, this is nothing definite, but could be possible.

I will continue monitoring the situation during the next 5 days.
ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC MSLP FORECAST MAPS




Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.