Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost, and for the children and parents in MN.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   6
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

Not much change in the Atlantic since yesterday.  There is somewhat of an increase in scattered convection noted, however I only see one area of interest at the current time which will be pointed out in the synopsis.  A good amount of dry air still persists over much of the Atlantic basin with the SAL still persistent, noted in pink.  I will touch on this as well.  A limited increase in tropical wave activity is noted over Africa this morning.
GOES 19 RGB DUST SATELLITE LOOP  


The NHC does not indicate any development probability during the next 7 days.  The ECMWF EPS does indicate a current 50% probability for a CATL tropical wave I am monitoring.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 72 – 120 HOURS


A tropical wave in the CATL near 50W has maintained convection for the past 24 hours, and is displaying decent rotation, and analysis of the most recent ASCAT pass indicates a broad, open circulation.  Current wind shear analysis indicates only 10 – 15 kts of easterly shear.  Current precipitable water values are favorable.  Marginal to somewhat favorable conditions are forecast to remain with this wave for approximately the next 72 hours.  I will continue to monitor this for any development during this time frame.
CATL WAVE SATELLITE LOOP


Elsewhere, I will be monitoring the stalled frontal boundary off the U.S. east coast to the Gulf for any mischief.
Elsewhere, I do not expect any development for the next 5 – 7 days.

While it’s still fairly quiet, I wanted to touch on 2 items…the MJO and the “dust” we have noted still hanging around.

I know some are probably tired of hearing about a projected, decent increase in tropical activity for our side of the world, with the season supposedly becoming very busy.  This is based on the projected MJO Phase Space diagram forecasts from at least 2 of the more accurate MJO forecast models, along with updated CHI200 anomaly forecast maps.  The CHI200 forecast maps pretty much indicate the “phase” of the MJO, and depict favorable conditions by brown and green color, with brown being unfavorable due to sinking air from the upper atmosphere, and green being favorable, indicating rising air in the upper atmosphere which creates divergence in the upper atmosphere, one key factor in tropical development.  The phase space diagram models have been showing pretty much the same thing for the past week or so.  The recent CHI200 anomalies predictions have now come into agreement on a very favorable pattern mimicking phases 1 and 2 of the MJO.  I know I have been repeating this and I know it seems like forever, however the rotation of the MJO has slowed.  Putting things together, it may be at least another 10 – 14 days before we see the projected increase in activity.  Of course, this is based on whether the modeling is correct or not.  IF the modeling is correct, there could be a somewhat substantial pick up in activity.  In the CHI200 anomalies map, the darker the green, the more favorable the conditions.  I will have the link to an MJO or two posted following the graphics.
MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL

ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM

ECMWF CHI200 ANOMALY FORECAST


DEVELOPMENT CORRELATION (DEPICTED BY ORANGE AND RED)

MJO ARTICLES
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/2/2009jcli2978.1.xml
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL106872

African dust and dry air has been hanging around for a while, and is somewhat unprecedented for Sep. heading toward the “peak” of the season.  Yes, some dust is still present, but mainly over the EATL.  You’ll note in the dust satellite image “pink” coming down from the polar areas, and we know the Sahara desert is not located there.  The dust is being created by a feature known as the SHL (Saharan Heat Low).  This can be detected by analysis of 850 mb temperatures, which will appear warmer / hotter than the surrounding area.  You will note this in the following map, located over W. Africa.
ECMWF 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAP

The following article explains this phenomenon:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1875963717300253

Another factor in the dry air situation is, SST anomalies, although indicating some (but not much) cooling far north, the pattern is such that there is still some distortion of heat, creating some subsidence over the Atlantic.  This subsidence creates drier air in certain areas.
SST ANOMALY MAP

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS