I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

Today marks the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season…which is unusually quiet. Over my 20+ years of forecasting tropical systems, the season has “peaked” during other times of September. I have seen the peak as early as Sep. 05, and as late as Sep. 21.

Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic is still quiet. Though the surface analysis from TAFB indicates a low in the Gulf, and satellite imagery indicates a wave exiting Africa, conditions and forecast conditions are marginal at best, and I am not looking for development in the near future
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


The NHC GTWO does not indicate any tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

Based on analysis of the 00Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast, the model does not really indicate any tropical cyclone formation. The global models (with the exception of the GFS which is up to its mischief, indicating some type of development in the W. Caribbean beyond 10 days in the forecast period and should not be considered right now) do not indicate anything during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

I do not expect tropical cyclone development during the next 5 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 120 HOURS

Based on the most recent MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) phase space diagram forecast, the MJO may be traversing into PHASES 8 and 1 within the next 15 – 20 days. The forecast indicates a slowing of forward speed of the MJO. Slow forward motion of the MJO aids in the reduction of wind shear. Should this materialize, this could allow for possible development in the W. Caribbean, Gulf, or close in development IVO the SEUS coastal area. The current phase space diagram forecast show possible movement into PHASE 1, and the latest CHI200 anomalies update for week 3 and 4 from the JMA, initialized on 9/09/2026, indicate a PHASE 8 forecast of the MJO.
ACCESS – S2 MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

JMA MODEL CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST WEEK 2 (SEP. 19 – SEP 25)

SEP 26 – OCT 09

MJO PHASES BY CHI200 ANOMALIES

MJO PHASE 8 AND 1 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT (ORANGE / RED COLORING)

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.