Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

Satellite loop imagery indicates the trough in the Subtropical CATL and a Tropical Wave exiting Africa.
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


The NHC GTWO currently indicates a MEDIUM (40%) probability of development regarding a trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 12Z this morning.
12Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

Based on analysis of the 06Z ECMWF Cyclone formation probability forecast, the model currently indicates a 30% probability of development for the trough in the Subtropical CATL, and the wave just exiting Africa during the next 72 hours.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

Analysis of recent conditions indicate our suspect area is under little to no shear, and appears to be trying to develop an upper level outflow channel. At the moment, there is a lack of surface convergence and upper divergence, and the “area” is borderline shallow warm core. Analysis of water vapor loop imagery however indicates the trough is battling dry air, which is currently filling the “center”. Based on analysis of the ECMWF global model, the shear pattern is forecast to improve in the short term, based on development of a forecast radial pattern. Analysis of precipitable water and mid level RH values indicate a slight improvement in surface to mid level moisture, however this will be closer to just marginally favorable levels. At approximately 48 – 60 hours in the forecast period, the model indicates the loss of the radial shear pattern, with an increase in wind shear. By 72 hours in the forecast period, the model indicates moisture from the surface to mid levels becomes unfavorable for development. Based on this, I really believe this is going to struggle to develop, if it is even going to develop into an organized, closed low pressure system. This should pose no threat to the U.S. and should remain out to sea. I will continue to monitor the area during the next 48 hours for any significant changes in forecast conditions.
SUBTROPICAL CATL AREA OF INTEREST IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP


I will also begin to monitor the Tropical Wave that has just exited Africa, though at the moment, I do not expect anything unless there is an increase in moisture in the EATL.

Elsewhere, I do not expect tropical cyclone development during the next 5 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 120 HOURS

Based on the most recent MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) phase space diagram forecast, the MJO may be traversing into PHASES 8 and 1 and 2 within the next 10 – 20 days. The forecast indicates a slowing of forward speed of the MJO, with more of a majority of ensemble members now clustered in those phases. Slow forward motion of the MJO aids in the reduction of wind shear. Should this materialize, this could allow for possible development in the W. Caribbean, Gulf, or close in development IVO the SEUS coastal area. Based on this, I believe we should see some uptick in activity by the end of the month, and through at least the first 2 weeks of Oct.
ACCESS – S2 MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

MJO PHASE 8 AND 1 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT (ORANGE / RED COLORING)

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.