Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 8
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:     0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP

The NHC does not indicate any cyclone development during the next 7 days. HANNA has become a remnant low.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

I know there may be some readers who are tired of seeing the wash, rinse, repeat of this but, again, based on the current MJO forecast, as well as the CHI200 anomalies forecast from the ECMWF EPS, the forecast indicates the MJO to remain in a favorable state, which could allow for a development in the W. Caribbean or the Gulf during the next 2 weeks. The ECMWF EPS maps indicate favorable upward motion, designated by the green and blue areas. While I do not rely on longer range model output for accuracy, and while this still may be “stretching it”, I will continue to monitor this as some of the ensembles and AI in the longer range ( now as early as day 8 in the forecast period) “hint” at low pressure in the Gulf, with the ECMWF EPS in the long range (2 weeks) indicating a good increase in rainfall anomalies. We now have the ECMWF Cyclone Formation probability forecast showing a 30% probability at day 10. Also, though at varying times in the forecast period, the 3 global models indicate lowering MSLP and / or development of low pressure. This has become more consistent over the past 48 hours. The Global Tropical Hazards outlook is also “sniffing out” a low probability.

This doesn’t mean that this will necessarily occur, however we will be able to “test the waters” so to speak, on whether there is any accuracy to this, or if the “signals” are being overdone.
ECMWF EPS MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST 30 SEP – 05 OCT.

05 OCT. – 10 OCT.

10 OCT. – 15 OCT.

ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC MSLP FORECAST MAPS



ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 240 HOURS

GLOBAL TROPICAL HAZARDS OUTLOOK

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

Elsewhere, I do not expect tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.