Good day evening everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       1
MAJOR HURRICANES:     1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


The NHC does not indicate any tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves. None were detected
12Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 – 6 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

There has been no change to the MJO phase space forecast or CHI200 anomalies forecast

Based on my analysis this afternoon, the 3 global deterministic models are still showing consistency, and the various AI models and ensembles are in better agreement of a coastal low pressure area developing off the Mid Atlantic coast in approximately 72 – 96 hours due to a trough split from a cold front that will soon move off the east coast of the U.S.

Based on my analysis of the ECMWF model 850 mb – 500 mb temperature charts, and Cyclone Phase Evolution thermal diagram forecasts, this low may begin as a cold core, baroclinic system. However, based on the analysis of these items, the low may become a shallow and weak warm core system briefly, as it will be meandering over the Gulfstream. Based on analysis of forecast wind shear, the low will initially be under strong shear, hence a baroclinic system. Shear is however forecast to weaken somewhat with a very brief development of a radial pattern. This would allow for the system to possibly try to acquire some sub-tropical characteristics. Again, how the structure actually develops, and how strong this intensifies will all depend on how the actual conditions develop and maintain, compared to the forecast conditions. Analysis of forecast conditions indicate surface moisture will still be limited and marginally favorable, with mid level moisture being favorable up to around the end of this upcoming weak.
CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION THERMAL DIAGRAM FORECAST (ECMWF AND GFS)


There has been one change in the forecast based on the models, and that is, models are now indicating this does not come ashore, but remains off the coast, before eventually heading off toward the NE. Since this is shown in the longer range however, this could always change and I will keep a close eye on this, just in case. Even with the low being off the coast, forecast wave heights near the coast of VA / NC could reach 10 – 14 ft, which could cause some coastal flooding. I will know much more once this low takes shape, and will have information from local NWS offices in the area. I recommend small craft remain in port as this occurs, and residents in the area remain away from beaches.

I will continue monitoring the situation during the next 5 – 7 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES, SURFACE WIND, AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST (168 HOURS)




Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 days.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.