Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!
I will be out of the office Oct. 03, Oct. 06 and Oct. 7 for family events.  IF time allows tomorrow upon my return to home, I will try to post an update.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   9
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

There appears to be a slight increase in convective activity in the south central and southeast Atlantic, with some weak wave activity over Africa.  The wave circled in yellow appears to be the one the NHC has the 20% probability for when it exits Africa.

The NHC is issuing advisories on IMELDA
NHC LINK:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The NHC has designated a LOW (10%) probability for cyclone development for an area of low pressure that may form from the remnant of a frontal boundary. 
NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

This would be the area models indicated yesterday showing a lowering of MSLP anomalies.  Based on my analysis this morning I am not looking for any development at this time from this area, as current forecast conditions indicate somewhat of an unfavorable environment to persist with wind shear persisting for the next 72 hours and marginal precipitable water and mid level RH values at best.  Shear may begin to relax after 72 hours, however based on current projected path by model animations, this crosses over Florida and then into the panhandle in some of the model solutions.  Others indicate an elongation and split of the area.  The following animations are from the ECMWF and GFS


ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS

WPC 5 DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST

I will be monitoring the area over the next few days for any significant changes in forecast conditions.

Elsewhere, the NHC has designated a LOW (20%) probability for cyclone development regarding the wave mentioned, during the next 7 days.  The ECMWF EPS cyclone development probability indicates  50% probability during the next 96 -144 hours
NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS PROBABILITY 

Analysis this morning indicates when the wave in question exits the African coast, conditions will be marginal for development.  Thereafter, conditions gradually improve and in approximately 4 days from the recent model runs, conditions become favorable for slow develop of this feature, with models indicating a developing surface low, favorable precipitable water (TPW), and favorable mid level humidity values.  The ECMWF indicates development of a radial shear pattern (favorable), and a marginally favorable divergent upper pattern.  IF these conditions are accurate and come to fruition, I expect slow development of this.  NHC states the following in the outlook “this wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow development of the combined feature is possible”
ECMWF FORECAST CONDITIONS
MSLP ANOMALIES

TPW

MID LEVEL RH

WIND SHEAR
Looking at satellite imagery this morning, I believe the NHC may be referring to the feature located near 15.0N;50.0W in the above statement, as the following is a satellite image of the MDR eastern Atlantic and the feature I just mentioned would be CATL:
EASTERN ATLANTIC STILL IMAGE

An accurate forecast track is not possible at the moment, however based on analysis of forecast steering layers, and positioning of the NHC hatched area, it appears this “could” possibly make it closer to 60W longitude prior to having a chance to “re-curve”.  This will be an unknown variable until we get something in the water, and it possibly begins development.  I will continue to monitor this for any significant changes to forecast conditions during the next 72 – 96 hours.

There has been no change to the MJO forecast or CHI200 anomalies in indicating the MJO continuing to cycle into the more favorable phases for all of October, with upward motion over the Atlantic basin being forecast as seen in the update JMA CHI200 mb anomalies forecast:
04 – 10 OCT

11 – 17 OCT

18 – 31 OCT

Ensemble members are still hinting at a pickup in activity as well.
ECMWF, ECMWF AIFS, GFS AND CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBER WISE 9 DAY MSLP FORECAST




While I am not expecting development during the next 5 – 7 days, I will be monitoring the tropics closely during the remainder of the month. 

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS