Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 10
TOTAL HURRICANES:        1
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


The NHC does not indicate any tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves. None were detected
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 3 – 7 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

120- 168 HOURS

ECMWF EPS MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST


Based on my analysis this morning, as shown above, there is no change in the MJO forecast. The updated MJO phase space diagram forecast indicates the MJO is forecast to remain in phases 2 and 3, with members indicating a strong signal. Given the lack of development recently, I did a little further research into the MJO phases and correlation to tropical development on our side of the world. Phases 8, 1 and 2 are considered favorable. To some extent, phase 3 is considered favorable, however the most favorable phase would be phase 2. From research:

The most favorable phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic basin are Phases 8, 1, and 2 (and to some extent Phase 3). [1, 2, 3]

Key Favorable Phases:
Phases 8 and 1: Correspond to the Western Hemisphere and Africa, where the enhanced convective (wet) pulse of the MJO arrives over the Atlantic basin. [1]

Phase 2: Corresponds to the western portion of the Indian Ocean or transition into the Western Hemisphere/Atlantic influence, which historically shows some of the highest accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and storm genesis rates in the Atlantic. [1, 2]

Though we are in a fairly strong signal for phase 2 and 3, the following circumstances can preclude tropical cyclone development (to which the Atlantic basin is under high shear and dry air). However, I am a little perplexed, as a slow moving MJO is supposed to aid in reduction of wind shear and provide favorable upper divergence:

A lack of tropical development during strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Phases 2 and 3 (typically centered over the Indian Ocean) is caused by competing environmental factors that override or cancel out the favorable large-scale rising motion of the MJO. [1, 2]

Unfavorable Regional Location: MJO Phases 2 and 3 place enhanced convection primarily over the Indian Ocean. Depending on the basin you are monitoring (such as the Atlantic or East Pacific), being in Phase 2 or 3 often means that region is outside the primary ascending/favorable window, or sitting under a neutral/suppressed atmospheric branch. [1, 2]

High Vertical Wind Shear: Strong upper-level or deep-layer wind shear can tear developing thunderstorms apart before they can organize into a closed circulation, regardless of MJO phase. [1, 2]

Dry Air and Saharan Dust: Intrusions of dry mid-level air or dry, dusty air layers (common in the Atlantic during summer/fall) choke off the buoyancy and moisture required to sustain deep thunderstorms. [1, 2]

Larger Climate Mode Interferences: Large-scale climate patterns like El Niño or La Niña can alter baseline wind shear and moisture profiles. For instance, El Niño often increases hostile wind shear across the Caribbean and Atlantic, blocking tropical cyclone formation even when other indices try to look supportive. [1, 2]

Lack of Pre-Existing Disturbances: The MJO provides a favorable environment, but it still requires a seed—such as a tropical wave (African easterly wave) or a monsoon trough perturbation—to actually spark spin and convection. If seed waves are weak or absent, no storm will form. [1]

Analysis of surface analysis from the NHC, and satellite loop imagery indicates the low that occurred from the recent trough split remains pretty much stationary over the Bahamas and Cuba.
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Models tend to indicate this remains stationary for at least the next 24 hours, before another split occurs, with a low developing NE of the Bahamas, and moving NEWD and lower MSLP drifting thorough the FL. straits. At the moment, I am not looking for any tropical development from this.

Elsewhere, global models are indicating lowering MSLP anomalies for the Gulf, at around 7 days out, and varying low pressure development. Given the varying solutions, I will continue monitoring everything for agreement and consistency.
GFS AND CMC MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST


ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 168 HOURS

Given that the MJO is forecast to remain stalled in phases 2 and 3 for at least the next 20 days, I will continue to monitor the W. Caribbean, and Gulf areas for signs of any development.

Elsewhere, I do not expect development during the next 5 to 7 days.

Down the road, something unusual for early Nov. is forecast, given we are in a strong El Nino pattern. The ECMWF is indicating a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event to occur. Should this come to fruition, we will have to see if the QBO index (Quasi – Biennial Oscillation) shifts from the current westerly phase to an easterly phase, and see how this might affect temperatures across the U.S. by the second week of Nov.
ECMWF 10MB TEMPERATURE AND HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST


CURRENT QBO PHASE

SSW ARTICLE
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.