Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   7
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

Well, we have a little more change in the overall Atlantic, with Tropical Storm Gabrielle?, the EATL wave near the Cape Verde islands, and once again, disappearing wave activity over Africa.  Dry air is still a factor over the Atlantic, which seems a little unusual in the amount for this time in the season.  Again, as we get into late SEP. and into OCT., we’ll have to monitor the Central American Gyre or CAG for any areas of development.  I have links to articles on the CAG at the end of this synopsis

I am going to forego the MJO forecast, as I think I have made it clear that the forecast calls for rotation into the favored development phases, and we should see an increase in tropical activity.  Although, the rotation has once again slowed, and I sometimes wonder just how accurate these models are.  I guess we’ll find out in a couple weeks as the forecast indicates a strong phase 2.

The NHC this morning has classified our CATL wave Tropical Depression 7, and has now upgraded it to Tropical Storm Gabrielle.  As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT  advisory, the following information was available on T.D. 7:
11:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 17
Location: 17.5N;46.6W
Moving: NNW 22 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71 in.
Max sustained: 45 mph

I do not agree with the classification at the time it was designated, and I feel the NHC jumped the gun once again.  THIS SHOULD NOT BE NAMED!  Satellite loop imagery did not indicate any deep organized convection around or near “center”, which needs to persist for 24 hours, and based on information in the NHC forecast discussion, the center was not well defined.  From the NHC 5:00 a.m. discussion:
Satellite data indicate that Invest 92L over the central tropical Atlantic has now developed into a tropical depression. ASCAT data from around 00Z showed that the circulation of the system had improved, and although it was not well defined at the time of the pass, the system was only lacking some northerly winds on its west side.

From the 11:00 a.m. discussion:
Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the large system is not well-organized, with an elongated circulation oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast containing a few embedded swirls. The advisory center is a mean center of those swirls, with any associated convection well east of the position due to southwesterly shear. While it wouldn’t appear so from conventional satellite data, a recent scatterometer pass indicates upwards of 40-kt winds present, generally northeast and southeast of the center of circulation.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


You will notice a broad and elongated circulation, WITH NO organized convection.  AGAIN, the following is the criteria for a tropical cyclone from both the NWS and NHC.  THIS DOES NOT meet the criteria:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.

Based on the NHC motion, the depression was moving toward the NNW.  Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue for the next 24 – 36 hours, prior to a slight bend left, then back to NNW.  Based on forecast steering, I currently agree with the 12Z model guidance TVCA, which closely reflects the current NHC forecast track.  As the system becomes more organized however, adjustments may occur in track guidance and should become more accurate.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST MAP

Based on analysis of water vapor imagery and recent TPW products, the storm is currently being affected by some dry air intrusion, and moderate shear of around 20 kts.  The shear has been introduced by a shift to the SE in the center of the radial shear pattern.  You’ll note in the TPW images, that precipitable water has decreased quite a bit compared to yesterdays image
CURRENT WIND SHEAR

TPW SEP.17

TPW SEP. 16

Based on analysis of the ECMWF global model, Gabrielle will continue to encounter a drier environment and some shear for approximately the next 48 – 72 hours, so conditions appear to remain marginal for this time period, however during this time, animations indicate conditions slowly improve.  By approximately 96 hours into the forecast, conditions become more favorable for strengthening, with a great improvement in precipitable water and 500 mb relative humidity, with improvement of the upper level winds (shear and divergence).  Based on this, slow development should once again take hold, with a more steady intensification beginning by approximately 72 – 96 hours.  Currently, I have a tendency to agree with the NHC intensity forecast, however the rate could be a little slower.  While intensity guidance and NHC bring this to CAT 1 hurricane status, I will have to see if there is any change to the forecast conditions, as the system may struggle to do so.  It was noted that SHIPS diagnostic guidance did not indicate hurricane intensity.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

Elsewhere, I am monitoring the Tropical Wave in the EATL.  The NHC has designated a LOW (20%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days, while the ECMWF EPS probability forecast indicates a 40 – 50% probability during the next 72 hours.  Based on current analysis, initial conditions are favorable for slow development, however mid level dry air and reduction in precipitable water are forecast to affect the wave in approximately 36 – 48 hours.  Although wind shear is not forecast to be detrimental, based on the forecast conditions, dry air appears to be a major factor down the road for this wave.  Given this, I would expect the probability for further development to remain low.  I will continue to monitor this wave however, for any significant changes to forecast conditions.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

EATL SATELLITE LOOP


Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 – 7 days.
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE INFORMATION (CLICK LINKS BELOW)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_American_gyre
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/5/mwr-d-16-0411.1.xml

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS