Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   8
TOTAL HURRICANES:         2
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE
There is a glitch in the Africa satellite imagery, and the last update was 14 hours ago.

Tropical Storm HUMBERTO and INVEST 94L are the main areas of concern.  Water vapor imagery indicates that dry air is still a factor in the Atlantic basin.  Again, as we get into late SEP. and into OCT., we’ll have to monitor the Central American Gyre or CAG for any areas of development.  I have links to articles on the CAG at the end of this synopsis.

IF forecast conditions for the MJO come to fruition, I still expect some kind of increase in activity, although the amount is unknown given slight discrepancies in the MJO forecast and CHI200 anomalies predictions.  The MJO is currently stalled in the “null” phase, but is still forecast to enter the most favorable phases by October, with a strong signal indication:
CURRENT MJO PHASE

MJO PHASE SPACE FORECAST

The 8th Tropical Storm of the season is born, being designated by the NHC at 5:00 p.m. yesterday evening.  Again, initialization did not fully meet criteria at that moment, with the LLC being almost fully exposed.  However as shear continues to slowly weaken, HUMBERTO is much better organized as of this morning.
HUMBERTO SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on HUMBERTO:
11:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 25
Location: 21.4N;56.8W
Moving: NW 8 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65 in.
Max sustained: 50 mph
HUMBERTO was moving toward the NW.  Again, as mentioned yesterday with the possible interaction with INVEST 94L, both systems could have an effect on each others future steering if we get what is known as the Fujiwhara effect.
FUJIWHARA EFFECT EXPLAINED (CLICK LINK)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

However, based on current global model runs, the models pretty much indicate each system remaining on 2 different paths.  Based on this, and my analysis of current forecast steering layers maps, I have to agree at the moment with the 12Z track guidance, until I can actually see if the interaction of both systems becomes closer than forecast.  I currently prefer a blend of the TVCA consensus, OFCI (Official NHC track), and HWFI track.  I currently agree with the NHC forecast track.
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE
NHC FORECAST MAP

As of analysis this morning, HUMBERTO was still under the effect of some moderate shear however, shear tendency values indicated shear continues to relax.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP HUMBERTO

Based on the forecast wind shear pattern from global models, especially the ECMWF, wind shear is forecast to begin to improve over both systems in about 48 hours, with a well defined radial shear pattern forecast to develop, along with a favorable upper level outflow pattern.  It is noted that HUMBERTO will be within the more favorable pattern with favorable TPW and mid level relative humidity values.  HUMBERTO will also being entering a little higher OHC within the 48 hour time period.  Based on these factors, HUMBERTO should continue to gradually strengthen during the next 36 – 48 hours, and may attain category one hurricane status during that period.  Based on forecast conditions, from 48 hours on, I cannot rule out a brief period of R.I. (Rapid Intensification) from the 48 – 72 hour period in the forecast.  Should all this come to fruition, HUMBERTO may very well become our next major hurricane.  Based on all of this, I currently have to agree with the NHC intensity guidance:
NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE

I will continue to monitor HUMBERTO for any significant changes to track and intensity during the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, the NHC has designated a HIGH (90%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days, for INVEST 94L.  
94L SATELLITE LOOP

NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

As of the 12Z ATCF BTK update, the following information was available on INVEST 94L:
8:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 25
Location: 20.0N;70.7W
Moving: NW 16 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
The INVEST was currently moving to the NW (305 degrees).  Based on what I stated about the proximity earlier regarding HUMBERTO, should the effect mentioned not occur, based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps, global model animations from this morning run, and current track guidance, I currently have to agree with the 12Z track guidance, and the TVCA and Hurricane model.  Bear in mind, this is only one run, and changes could occur, however it is beginning to look more likely we could see 94L make landfall along SC / NC as a Tropical Storm.  I will be monitoring this for any “center” reformations or relocations, which would change the forecast track.
94L 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF GUIDANCE

Based on satellite imagery, 94L has had an increase in convection, and based on current position, the center is located just north of Hispaniola.  The system is still under some 25 -30 kts of wind shear.  Based on analysis, as mentioned with HUMBERTO, the system will begin to be in more favorable conditions starting in about 48 hours.  By 72 hours, a radial shear pattern, upper level outflow, and increase in moisture will be at favorable levels, but not as favorable as with HUMBERTO.  Based on this, once 94L is over the area of the Bahamas, a more gradual rate of intensification should begin.  IF these conditions occur, 94L could become a depression in approx. 36 – 48 hours, and a Tropical Storm in around 72 hours.  This is inline with the current intensity guidance.
CIMSS 94L WIND SHEAR

12Z INTENSITY FORECAST

The following maps show the forecast conditions, MSLP animation from both the ECMWF and GFS global models, and forecast wave heights from the ECMWF wave height model
ECMWF AND GFS  MSLP FORECAST ANIMATIONS


ECMWF TPW 72 HOURS

ECMWF 500 RH 72 HOURS

ECMWF WIND SHEAR 72 HOURS

ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE (OUTFLOW) 72 HOURS

ECMWF WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST

From the National Hurricane Center:

Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 – 7 days.
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE INFORMATION (CLICK LINKS BELOW)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_American_gyre
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/5/mwr-d-16-0411.1.xml

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS