I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP

The NHC once has 3 areas on the GTWO map. T.D. CRISTOBAL, INVEST 92L, and INVEST 94L
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The NHC has maintained a HIGH (80%) probability of tropical cyclone development for INVEST 92L

As of the 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 92L:
8:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 13
Location: 10.8°N; 44.7°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
CLOSEUP IR LOOP INVEST 92L

The disturbance was currently moving to the west at around 20 mph. Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, the weakness in the ridge is forecast to move westward as the system progresses west. Based on this, I expect the current motion to continue, with a track of approx. 270 – 275 degrees. Based on this, I prefer the current HFWI forecast track at the moment.
RAL 12Z 92L TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on my analysis, the disturbance is currently under 15 – 20 kts of SW wind shear. During the next 24 hours, wind shear, based on the ECMWF forecast, is shown to increase. The disturbance is also surrounded by dry air, to which there is some slight intrusion on the eastern side of the system. By 36 hours into the period, dry air is forecast to increase around the system, and while moisture values are minimal, the increase in shear and combination of surrounding drier air should cause this system to begin to weaken. While some intensity models still want to bring this to tropical storm intensity, I believe the probabilities are waning. However, we still may see the development of a brief tropical depression during the next 36 hours. This is all going to depend on how actual conditions materialize.
CIMSS 92L WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR


SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RH FORECAST

WIND SHEAR FORECAST

RAL CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE 12Z

I will continue to monitor INVEST 92L during the next 48 hours for any significant changes in forecast conditions.

The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days for INVEST 94L:

As of the 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 94L:
8:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 13
Location: 10.3°N; 27.5°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
INVEST 94L IR SATELLITE LOOP

Based on analysis of satellite loop imagery the INVEST is still producing disorganized shower activity. The wave is under light shear from the east at around10 – 15 kts. Given the direction of the INVEST movement, this should have somewhat of a minimal effect on the system. Based on current direction, and analysis of forecast steering maps, I am currently expecting a turn more toward the WNW in around 36 – 48 hours. Based on this, I prefer the current clustered forecast track. Given that this is an initialization of the guidance modeling, I will be monitoring guidance for any changes in future track.
RAL 12Z 94L TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on analysis of forecast wind shear both from the SHIPS diagnostic report, and the ECMWF deterministic model, wind shear is forecast to increase during this next 24 hours, but averaging only around 22 kts. This could most likely hinder further organization, however it is not too far above the 20 kts max for slow development. Surface to mid level moisture is currently forecast to remain at favorable levels for the next 72 hours, before the INVEST begins experiencing dry air intrusion on its eastern periphery. By 48 – 60 hours in the period, wind shear is forecast to relax, with a developing radial shear pattern. SHOULD these conditions occur EXACTLY as forecast, we could see development of a tropical depression later this week, close to the weekend. Based on the SHIPS diagnostic report, the information brings this to tropical storm status in approx. 60 hours. I’m a little skeptical of this given that the information this morning is based on initialization of the system and the system lacks organization, so it would be wise to monitor further updates of this.
RAL CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE 12Z

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST

I will continue to monitor this area during the next 72 hours for any significant changes in forecast conditions.

ECMWF CURRENT 72 HOUR ANIMATION

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.