I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


The NHC has 2 areas on the GTWO map. INVEST 92L, and INVEST 94L
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 12Z this morning.
12Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The NHC has reduced the probability for development to LOW (10%) for INVEST 92L

As of the 06Z (2:00 a.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 92L:
2:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 13
Location: 11.4°N; 50.4°W
Moving: W at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
CLOSEUP IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP INVEST 92L


The disturbance was currently moving to the west at around 22 mph. Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, the weakness in the ridge is forecast to move westward as the system progresses west. Based on this, I expect the current motion to continue, with a track of approx. 270 – 275 degrees during the next 72 hours, then possibly heading WSW shortly after. Based on this, I prefer the current HFWI, TABS, and CMCI forecast track at the moment.
RAL 06Z 92L TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on my analysis, the disturbance is currently under 20 – 25 kts of NWLY wind shear. During the next 18 hours, wind shear, based on the ECMWF and SHIPS diagnostic forecast, is shown to maintain and increase to around 25 kts. Once this system enters well into the Caribbean, wind shear is forecast to increase to 50 – 60 kts.. The disturbance is also surrounded by dry air, to which the dry air has eroded the southern portion of the system as seen in the recent water vapor loop. Based on this, and even though the SHIPS guidance indicates borderline favorable surface to mid level moisture, the ECMWF model does indicate on and off dry air intrusion. Based on this, and the premise of an increase in wind shear, it is my professional opinion that INVEST 92L should show no further development, and I agree with the probability reduction.
CIMSS 92L WIND SHEAR

SHIPS DIAGNOSTIC FORECAST LINK
https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2026/al922026/stext/26081406AL9226_ships.txt

RAL CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE 06Z

I will continue to monitor INVEST 92L during the next 48 hours for any significant changes in forecast conditions.

The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (40%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days for INVEST 94L:

As of the 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 94L:
8:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 13
Location: 10.8°N; 34.3°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb / 29.91 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
INVEST 94L IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Based on analysis of satellite loop imagery the INVEST is still producing disorganized shower activity. The wave is under light shear from the east at around 10 – 15 kts out of the SSE. This appears to be keeping convection just to the west of the center. Based on current direction, and analysis of forecast steering maps, I am currently expecting a turn more toward the WNW in around 36 – 48 hours. Based on this, I prefer the current clustered forecast track. I will be monitoring guidance for any changes in future track.
RAL 12Z 94L TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on analysis of forecast wind shear both from the SHIPS diagnostic report, and the ECMWF deterministic model, wind shear is forecast to remain below 15 kts now during the next 72 – 84 hours, with the ECMWF indicating the current radial shear pattern to re-center over the INVEST. However, the system is pretty much within the same environment as 92L with surrounding dry air. Based on the current SHIPS diagnostic report, 700 – 500 mb relative humidity values are forecast to drop below 60% in about 48 hours. By that time, the ECMWF is indicating dry air to intrude on the western portion of the INVEST at the 500 mb level. The SHIPS diagnostic still brings this up to tropical storm intensity. However, I’m a little skeptical on that, as given the forecast of lowering mid level moisture, although a radial shear pattern is favorable for further development, unless the system can mix out the drier air that is forecast, I see only about a 36 – 48 hour window for any organization and slow strengthening. I could be wrong on this, and it won’t be the first time in my forecasting career, but I feel this may have a limited time to only become a tropical depression, as stated by the NHC. I feel at the moment, that a tropical storm may be out of the question. At least that is what forecast conditions are telling me.
RAL 94L CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE 12Z

ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST

I will continue to monitor this area during the next 72 hours for any significant changes in forecast conditions.

ECMWF CURRENT 72 HOUR ANIMATION

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.