Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. Since my Mrs. is at work today, and the NHC has added the probability regarding the wave soon to exit the African coast, I decided to open the office.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems. Subtropical systems will be marked in purple:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)

The NHC has introduced a MEDIUM (50%) probability of cyclone formation for newly designated INVEST 95L in the Central Subtropical Atlantic, and a MEDIUM (60%) probability for a Tropical Wave that has just exited the coast of Africa.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability of cyclone formation regarding INVEST 95L

As of the 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 95L:
8:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 24
Location: 30.4°N; 60.5°W
Moving: NNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1016 mb / 30.00 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph

CLOSEUP IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP INVEST 95L


The disturbance is currently moving toward the NNW based on the ATCF BTK product and current steering layers analysis. Based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps, the disturbance should begin to move on a more northerly heading, and by later tomorrow, should begin a turn toward the NNE, then eventually to the NE. Based on this, I concur with the very limited track guidance of the AEMI / AVNI guidance models from the 12Z update:
RAL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on analysis this morning, INVEST 95L is currently under the influence of a radial shear pattern.
CIMSS 12Z WIND SHEAR MAP

While water vapor imagery indicates some surrounding dry air, the ECMWF and visible satellite loops currently do not indicate dry air intrusion near the core. Right now, though the NHC states this has become better organized, convection is limited and satellite imagery would tend to indicate it is only slightly better organized. It was noted that in analysis, lower level convergence and upper level divergence values were only at 5 – 10. For a tropical wave to develop, these values should be approx. 20 – 30 for steady convective organization. Lack of strong enough divergence aloft negates any upward vertical velocity. This appears to be struggling at the moment, which is most likely due to the proximity of another mid – upper level low to its west, and another mid level vorticity directly to the disturbances SW.

Based on analysis of the ECMWF model, and the 12Z SHIPS diagnostic report, wind shear is forecast to remain low during the next 36 – 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing the radial shear pattern remaining favorable to moderately favorable, with surface to mid level moisture remaining favorable. By 48 hours form 12Z, bot the ECMWF and SHIPS diagnostic report indicate an increase in wind shear, and a decrease on 700 – 500 mb relative humidity, with the SHIPS indicating a value of 48%. For development, RH values within those levels need to remain at 60+%.

Based on this, I believe we could see continued slow organization, and could possibly see a tropical depression, however this system is going to have to overcome the negative factors I have mentioned to become a tropical storm, as forecast by SHIPS guidance.

I will continue to monitor this system during the next 36 hours for any significant changes

Elsewhere, the tropical wave I have been speaking of over the past few days has just exited the African coast, with the “center” located at approximately10.8N;18.2W
EATL TROPICAL WAVE IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP


Analysis of the current wind shear map also indicates a radial shear pattern over this wave, which is a favorable factor for development. Pretty much the same condition is present with low surface convergence and low upper level divergence. This would be expected however having just exited land.
CIMSS EATL WIND SHEAR MAP

The NHC mentions in the outlook, that conditions are only marginally conducive for development. However, based on analysis of the ECMWF, the only marginal condition in the forecast is the 200 mb streamline pattern forecast, indicating on marginal upper level divergence. Other than this, the model indicates a favorable radial shear pattern, very high surface moisture based on the precipitable water forecast, and high values of relative humidity from the 700 – 500 mb level which are all favorable conditions for development. These conditions are currently forecast to remain with this wave during the next 96 hours in the forecast period. Thereafter, the shear pattern becomes a little less favorable, with drier air coming in from the south. Based on the current forecast, the drier air does not seem to enter the core. However, we know by now that forecast conditions can change in a very short time period, and this will be revisited in subsequent forecasts.

Based on the current forecast however, slow development should occur, and I cannot rule out the development of a tropical depression during the next 72 hours.

I will continue to monitor this area closely during the next 24 – 72 hours.

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 120 HOURS

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days. Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.