Good evening everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. Since my Mrs. is at work today, and the NHC has added the probability regarding the wave soon to exit the African coast, I decided to open the office.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems. Subtropical systems will be marked in purple:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)

The NHC has introduced a MEDIUM (40%) probability of cyclone formation for INVEST 95L in the Central Subtropical Atlantic, and a HIGH (70%) probability for a Tropical Wave that has just exited the coast of Africa.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 12Z this morning.
12Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (40%) probability of cyclone formation regarding INVEST 95L

As of the 18Z (2:00 p.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 95L:
2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 25
Location: 38.4°N; 58.2°W
Moving: NNE at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1014 mb / 29.94 in.
Max sustained: 35 mph
CLOSEUP IR AND VIS LOOP INVEST 95L


The disturbance is currently moving toward the NNE based on the ATCF BTK product and current steering layers analysis. Based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps, the disturbance should continue on this track for the next 24 hours, prior to turning more toward the NE. I prefer the AEMI /AVNI forecast track from the 12Z update:
RAL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on analysis, INVEST 95L is currently still under the influence of a radial shear pattern.
CIMSS 17Z WIND SHEAR MAP

Based on water vapor loop imagery, some drier air is now affecting the system, which is evidenced by analysis of some “arc” clouds moving off to the west, on the west side of the system.

Based on analysis of the ECMWF model, and the 12Z SHIPS diagnostic report, wind shear is now forecast to begin increasing late tomorrow, with an increase in mid level dry air. Given that low level convergence is very weak, and even though upper divergence is excellent, given that the last surface map analysis indicates this to be elongated and more trough like, I believe the window is closing quickly for any development. NHC may designate it, but I would not.

I will continue to monitor this system during the next 36 hours for any significant changes

Elsewhere, the NHC has increased the probability for development to HIGH (70%) regarding INVEST 96L

As of the 18Z (2:00 p.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 95L:
2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 25
Location: 12.9°N; 23.6°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
INVEST 96L IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP


INVEST 96 L was moving to the WNW (285 deg.) at around 16 mph. Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps suggest this motion should continue for the next 48 hours, prior to the system moving on a more true WNW course, then NW by around 72 – 96 hours. Based on this, I currently prefer the HMNI / HWFI forecast track in current guidance:
RAL 12Z GUIDANCE

Analysis of the current wind shear map also indicates a radial shear pattern over this wave, which is a favorable factor for development. It is noted that the “center” is just NE of the convection, and surface convergence and upper divergence although favorable, is located well SSW of the center. Sometimes when this occurs, there can be a center relocation or “reformation” under the convergence and divergence.
INVEST 96L WIND SHEAR

INVEST 96L CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE MAP

Based on analysis of current forecast conditions from the ECMWF and SHIPS diagnostic report, wind shear is forecast to remain below 20 kts, and in some cases, in single digits, with the radial shear pattern forecast to remain with the system for at least the next 96 hours. The surrounding atmosphere is laden with dry air, however current analysis indicates favorable moisture from the surface to mid levels. By about 72 hours out, the ECMWF indicates dry air intrusion at the 500 mb level, while the SHIPS diagnostic report indicates a reduction of RH values in the 700 – 500 mb level. So, this means we will have to revisit current and forecast conditions down the road to see which is correct. Given the battle ahead in staving off dry air, and the slight displacement of the center of the wave, the center would have to align more to begin development. Based on forecast conditions, there could still be slow development of a tropical depression, and should the system be able to “mix out”any dry air, maybe a possibility of a tropical storm. We shall see!

I will continue to monitor this area closely during the next 24 – 72 hours.

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 96 HOURS

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.