Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. Since my Mrs. is at work today, and the NHC has added the probability regarding the wave soon to exit the African coast, I decided to open the office.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems. Subtropical systems will be marked in purple:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)

The NHC has reduced the probability for cyclone development regarding INVEST 96L to a MEDIUM (60%) probability during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

As of the 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 96L:
8:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 13.5°N; 29.0°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in.
Max sustained: 35 mph
CLOSEUP IR, VIS AND WV LOOP INVEST 96L



The disturbance is currently moving toward the W based on the ATCF BTK product and current steering layers analysis. Based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps, the disturbance should continue on this track pretty much for the next 48 hours, based on the premise of a weaker system. In my opinion, I believe a reformation of the center more toward the south could still occur based on analyzed lower convergence, upper divergence, and vorticity maps indicating stronger rotation more SW of the current “center”. Based on this analysis, I prefer the forecast track of the HWFI / HMNI hurricane models at this time, which could take the system over the Leeward islands.
RAL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

INVEST 96L CONVERGENCE, DIVERGENCE AND VORTICITY MAP


Analysis of the current wind shear map still indicates a radial shear pattern over this wave, which is a favorable factor for development since no shear is affecting the system.
INVEST 96L WIND SHEAR

Based on analysis of the ECMWF model, and information contained in the current SHIPS diagnostic report, wind shear doesn’t appear to be a problem for at least the next 96 hours. Although the SHIPS report keeps wind shear values below 20 kts, the ECMWF indicates the shear pattern to turn more zonal in about 96 hours, which may have an affect on negating any development on 96L. However, it appears the big problem for 96L will be the surrounding dry air. SHIPS indicates 700 – 500 mb relative humidity values decrease from the value required for development, down to 48% RH within the next 48 hours. The ECMWF indicates dry air beginning to intrude toward the center by 72 hours in the forecast period. Long story short, the INVEST has a short, limited window to possibly become a tropical depression. By this weekend, given the forecast conditions, the system will most likely begin to dissipate. The majority of intensity guidance models keep this below tropical storm intensity.
RAL 12Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE

I will continue to monitor this area closely during the next 24 – 72 hours.

For giggles and grins, I will be monitoring the wave coming off Africa noted in satellite loop imagery.

Elsewhere, I do not expect and tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 96 HOURS

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.