Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES: 3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

Satellite loop imagery indicates about the same as yesterday over the Atlantic.
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


The NHC GTWO currently indicates a MEDIUM (60%) probability of development regarding newly designated INVEST 99L, SW of the Azores.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

As of the 12Z (8:00 a.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 99L:
8:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 18
Location: 33.0°N; 34.2°W
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1017 mb / 30.03 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
CLOSEUP IR, VIS AND WV LOOP INVEST 98L



Satellite imagery shows the INVEST to be fairly organized. Since this has just been designated, model guidance has not been initialized as far as forecast track or intensity at the time of my analysis, and current motion has been determined by calculation during the past 24 hours. The disturbance is currently moving toward the NNE at 3 MPH based on the ATCF BTK product and current steering layers analysis, and calculated using the distance of both latitude and longitude over the past 24 hours. Based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps, the disturbance should continue on this track pretty much for the next 2-3 days, moving slowly toward the Azores islands, with a possible clockwise loop thereafter.

Analysis of the current wind shear map indicates although shear velocity is not an issue, the flow aloft based on deep layer shear and upper level wind analysis indicates INVEST 99L is under the influence of upper level low pressure (counter-clockwise flow). This is not allowing for upper level divergence ( which is shown lacking in upper divergence analysis, which in turn is not allowing for lower level convergence, both values which are less than 5).

Analysis of current TPW (surface moisture) products indicate marginal surface moisture and dry air entering the southern portion, along with marginal 700 – 500 mb RH values.
CIMSS 99L WIND SHEAR

CIMSS 99L TPW

CIMSS INVEST 99L UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS

Based on analysis of the ECMWF model, although wind shear is currently forecast to remain below 20 kts for the next 48 – 72 hours, the flow is forecast to remain counter-clockwise over the system. This will most likely prohibit upper level divergence. Thereafter, wind shear is forecast to increase. Regarding the 700 – 500 mb relative humidity forecast, dry air is forecast to remain a factor affecting the very southern portion of the system, and in approximately 48 hours, dry air intrusion is forecast to increase at 500 mb. Based on all of the conditions mentioned, some development could be possible, however per research, these conditions would suggest if development occurs, it should be more along the liens of “subtropical” The system is currently shown to be weak cold core as of the last update of the thermal diagram. The ECMWF does indicated brief development of a 1016 mb, weak low pressure system, and based on the surface winds forecast of the system, I currently do not expect anything Tropical Storm intensity wise, unless some conditions change.

I will continue to monitor this area during the next 24 – 72 hours.

Elsewhere, I do not expect tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 120 HOURS

Elsewhere, based on the most recent MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) phase space diagram forecast, the MJO is now in PHASE 8 and is forecast to enter PHASES 1 and 2 within the next 10 – 20 days. and is verified by the JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast update. These are favorable phases for tropical development on our side of the world. The forecast indicates a slowing of forward speed of the MJO, with about 80% – 90% of the ensemble members now clustered in those phases, and indicating a stronger signal. Slow forward motion of the MJO aids in the reduction of wind shear. This could allow for possible development in the W. Caribbean, Gulf, or close in development IVO the SEUS coastal area. Based on this, I believe we still should see some uptick in activity by the end of the month, and through at least the first 2 weeks of Oct.
ACCESS – S2 MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

MJO PHASE 8 AND 1 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT (ORANGE / RED COLORING)

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.