Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   2
TOTAL HURRICANES:         0
MAJOR HURRICANES:        0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

As of the CIMSS TPW 1800Z update, Tropical Waves were noted at approximately 15W, 37W, 47W, 65W and 85W.  

Atlantic satellite loop imagery indicates conditions remain quiet over the Atlantic basin.  Water vapor loop imagery still indicates a large area of dry air over the Atlantic.
ATLANTIC IR  LOOP IMAGERY


Another item caught my eye in satellite imagery, however at the moment, I do not believe it will persist.  It looks like an MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex) has developed over the Gulf.  It’s currently a little difficult to say whether or not there is rotation with this area right now.  Analysis shows a lack of convergence at the surface, however there is very good divergence aloft, and the ASCAT pass over the area almost indicates a closed circulation, based on a north wind, west wind, and south wind (lacking a defined east wind).  I’m not looking for anything out of this, and it should begin to dissipate once daytime heating ceases.  I am however going to choose to monitor this, should it persist.
GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP


ASCAT IMAGERY

The NHC has designated a LOW (30%) probability for development during the next 7 days regarding a frontal boundary that is forecast to stall from off the SEUS coast, westward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 
NHC 7 DAY TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

Based on analysis of the current ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probability forecast charts, the possible system in question is going to hang around for a little, with highest probabilities for development at 30%, with a shift to the east, off the SEUS coast for the development area:
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST 72 HOURS


There is still model discrepancy as far as the size and strength of forecast entity, and where development might take shape.  As of the latest model runs, the ECMWF closes off a very weak low off the SEUS coast, with the CMC indicating a lowering of surface pressures from off the SEUS and across the Florida Peninsula, and the GFS showing a small but stronger low off the Florida west coast.  Related to this, the ECMWF and CMC indicate the favorable conditions to be over the SEUS coastal area, with the GFS indicating them in the E. Gulf, as far as 700 – 500 mb moisture, radial shear pattern, and divergence at 200 mb.  This is forecast to occur anywhere from JUL 04 – JUL 07.
ECMWF, CMC, AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST MAPS



Based on this, the situation for now will warrant this area to just be monitored during the next 72 hours, and to see once again, if the models come into better agreement.  I will continue to monitor this situation closely.

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 – 10 days.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS