Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Kerr county Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy.  Please pray for ALL of the souls lost, especially the young children, and pray for comfort, guidance and recovery for the survivors.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   3
TOTAL HURRICANES:         0
MAJOR HURRICANES:        0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

As of the CIMSS TPW 1700Z update, Tropical Waves were noted at approximately 29W, 46W, 62W, and 86W.  

Atlantic satellite loop imagery indicates conditions pretty much remain quiet over the Atlantic basin, with water vapor imagery still showing a lot of dry air over the basin.  
ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


Dust RGB imagery indicates African dust in the pink coloring:
DUST RGB SATELLITE LOOP


Water vapor satellite imagery above does indicate an appreciable increase in moisture over Africa, while African satellite images indicate an increase in tropical wave activity:
MTG-11 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

The NHC has issued their last advisory on T.D. Chantal.
NHC 7 DAY TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

Based on analysis of the current run of the global models, and ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probability forecast, development is not expected during the next 7 – 10 days.

Based on analysis of the updated MJO Phase Space Diagram forecast from the ACCESS – S2 model, and CHI200 anomalies forecast from last week, ensemble members from the S2 tend to indicate the MJO may try to enter Phases 8 and 1 by the end of the month; first week of Aug.  I suspect we may see the “quiet” continue until then. 
ACCESS -S2 MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST


Analysis of other information indicates vertical instability over the MDR remains below climatology, mainly from the SAL, which typically, July is generally the peak month for the SAL both in intensity and frequency of outbreaks.  Another item is still the warmer SST anomalies north of the MDR and cooler ones over the MDR.  To help get rid of instability, this should be reversed.
RECENT SST ANOMALY MAP

We have also experienced higher MSLP anomalies over and near the MDR, and lower anomalies north of there.  This needs to reverse itself as well, as to get development, you need higher pressure to the north, and lower pressures over the MDR area, as wind flow travels from higher pressure to lower pressure.  This is why you’ll hear me mention the “ridge over troubled water” sometimes.  At times, we’ll have a ridge develop over let’s say the extreme NEUS, or off the U.S. east coast far north.  This naturally lowers MSLP pressure far to the south (Gulf and Caribbean area).
GFS MSLP ANOMALY MAP DAY 7 FORECAST

Once this begins to take shape, I would expect an increase in tropical activity.

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 – 10 days.

The following is from the WPC office regarding flooding:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611 (LINKED)

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS