Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Kerr county Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy.  Please pray for ALL of the souls lost, especially the young children, and pray for comfort, guidance and recovery for the survivors.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   3
TOTAL HURRICANES:         0
MAJOR HURRICANES:        0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (LINKED)

As of the CIMSS TPW 1300Z update, Tropical Waves were noted at approximately 41W, 60W, and 81W.  
CIMSS 13Z TPW ANALYSIS

Atlantic satellite loop imagery indicates conditions still remaining quiet with no areas of organized convection.  Water vapor loop imagery indicates most of the cyclonic turning areas are located with the mid-upper atmosphere.  A large area of dry air is still noted over the Atlantic basin.
ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


Dust RGB imagery indicates African dust in the pink coloring:
DUST RGB SATELLITE LOOP


The following satellite loop is from the True color loop.  You’ll note the cloud pattern of what seems like little cotton puffs.  These are stratocumulus clouds which indicate a stable atmospheric environment.  Closer toward the U.S., you’ll note little specks of clouds as well.  All of this indicates a state of stability, or lack of instability, meaning there is no vertical lift in the atmosphere to allow convective clouds to develop.  This is caused by sinking air over the Atlantic.
GOES 19 GEOCOLOR LOOP

NASA GEOS 10 DAY DUST FORECAST

Water vapor satellite imagery above does indicate an increase in moisture over Africa, while African IR satellite images indicate a decrease in the amplitude of the wave activity
MTG-11 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

The NHC indicates Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days:
NHC 7 DAY TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)

I noticed yesterday due to the CPC Global Tropical Hazard Outlook indicating a 20% probability for possible development in the Gulf, multiple folks began posting about possible development. 
Yes, based on analysis of yesterdays ECMWF EPS probability forecast, it indicated a 20% probability around the timeframe posted in the forecast period.  The global models even indicated a radial shear pattern over the area with low shear values, which would be favorable.  However, this had the best probability OOA the 19th of the month, which is 10 days out in the period.  Analysis this morning indicates the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probability has decreased to around 5 – 10%, just in 24 hours.  The global models have also indicated the radial shear pattern will not be as robust, and regarding wind shear, the global models indicate marginal to semi-favorable conditions during the next 7 – 10 days.  You will note the area off the U.S. east coast indicating a 35% probability for development by 120 hours.  The only problem I have with this is, none of the global models indicate any lowering pressures or developing low, and again, upper level winds will be marginally favorable regarding this in the current global model runs.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 216 HOURS (JULY 18)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY 120 HOURS (JULY 14)

I do monitor these maps daily, however you’ll note I do not post about them.  I do not like posting 10 days out with these for the reasons I have just mentioned.  Forecasts beyond 5 – 7 days quickly lose accuracy.  There are times I do not like going out to 7 days.  The atmosphere changes CONSTANTLY and in this case, we just saw how quick some items changed.  Not saying it can’t happen, however there has to be model consistency with various forecast items coming together.  On the other hand, I will be monitoring this, as the overlay for the probability areas seems to indicate possibly another frontal boundary situation, or a trough split.

I will continue to monitor the tropics closely during the next 7 days, however I am not expecting any development during this time.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS