Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   6
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

This morning you’ll note the Atlantic basin remains quiet.  Two tropical waves are noted over the African continent.  A decent tropical wave was noted near 8.0N; 43.0W.  Analysis indicated the wave is under no shear, as a weak, radial pattern is currently over it.  Although TPW is high enough in value, mid level moisture is marginal at best.  I will continue to eye this, however I am not expecting any development.

As of the CIMSS TPW 1200Z update, Tropical Waves were noted at the approximate locations.  Black lines represent the approximate wave axis.
CIMSS 12Z TPW ANALYSIS

The NHC has added a LOW (20%) probability of development for a tropical wave that is forecast to exit the coast of Africa by sometime on Sunday.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Based on my analysis of the 00Z model runs and siding with the ECMWF, as the wave exits Africa, initial forecast conditions appear to be favorable in all aspects.  OOA (On Or About) mid week, moisture values from the surface to mid level remain favorable, however the radial shear / upper level anticyclone pattern becomes somewhat zonal.  Shear values however, are currently forecast to remain below 20 kts.  Based on this analysis, conditions could remain somewhat favorable for some slow development of the wave.  Based on animation of the precipitable water and water vapor images, the wave “could” be located in the CATL by day 10 in the forecast period.  Keep in mind however, this is just one run and the scenario could change, being that far out in the forecast period.  This is just for a general idea at this time.    The current ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability forecast is at 25 – 30%.  I will be monitoring this as soon as the wave enters the EATL.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST 240 HOURS

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 144 – 192 HOURS

Elsewhere, models have been consistent in the formation of an area of low pressure off the Florida east coast / northern Bahamas area in about 5 days.  Having analyzed various parameters, it appears this may be more of a coastal / offshore storm scenario, based on forecast conditions indicating more of a baroclinic pattern, in that surface to mid level moisture will take on an elongated pattern, and SW shear is forecast to take shape, pretty much looking like a “frontal” pattern.  In fact, a frontal boundary is forecast on Sep. 03.  The current ECMWF EPS formation probability remains low at 25%.
ECMWF MSLP FORECAST

WPC SURFACE FORECAST SEP. 03, 2025

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 120 – 168 HOURS

I have no change in my forecast thinking, with all of the forecast parameters I spoke of yesterday, in that we will see this “short” quiet period in activity as the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) remains in phases 4 and 5 for the remainder of the month. The updated MJO forecast and JMA CHI200 anomalies indicate the progress of the MJO may have slowed, so the forecast onset of increased tropical activity may not fully occur until around the ” climatological peak” of the season around the 10th of Sep through the end of Sep.  The majority of ensemble members in the MJO phase space diagram forecasts still indicate the MJO entering phases 1 and 2.  In the JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast maps, yellow / orange indicate sinking air from the upper atmosphere, while blue indicates rising air or upward motion, which favors tropical development.
MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL

Note the orange, green, and blue ensemble members of the ECMWF model.
ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM

Current vertical instability over the MDR remains somewhat below climatology, but is creeping upward slowly.  Based on the graph, it appears instability may make a good jump to above climatology, based on the dots seen above the climatology line at the beginning of Sep.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC MDR VERTICAL INSTABILITY

JMA CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST UPDATE AUG. 30 – SEP. 05 

SEP. 06 – SEP. 12

SEP. 13 – SEP. 26

Elsewhere, I am not expecting any development for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS