Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost, and for the children and parents in MN.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   6
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

The Atlantic basin is a tad more active, however there is only one area being monitored.  Very limited activity is seen over the African continent at the moment, however 3 waves are noted from the central portion to the eastern portion of the continent.  A good amount of dry air still persists over much of the Atlantic basin with the SAL still persistent, noted in pink.  
GOES 19 RGB DUST SATELLITE LOOP  


As of the CIMSS TPW 1300Z update, Tropical Waves were noted at the approximate locations.  Black lines represent the approximate wave axis.
CIMSS 13Z TPW ANALYSIS

Let’s begin a little closer to home.
An area of low pressure has developed along a stalled frontal boundary east of the Florida peninsula, just north of the northern Bahamas.  There are a few things I analyzed this morning, and this low, based on forecast conditions, doesn’t pose any threat to the U.S. mainland.  Even analysis of the current wave height forecast isn’t detecting any high seas or waves associated with this low over the next few days.  Currently, the low is under about 25 – 30 knots of westerly wind shear, and the forecast calls for shear to remain high throughout the life of the low.  The current Cyclone Phase Evolution thermal diagram still indicates this low to be cold core, and is forecast to remain as such.  Based on this, I am not expecting any tropical development of this, and the low should remain baroclinic in nature.
SEUS SATELLITE LOOP


CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION THERMAL DIAGRAM

I will continue to monitor this, but will only update should there be any significant changes to the low, or the forecast conditions.

Elsewhere, t

he NHC has increased the probability for cyclone development in regard to the tropical wave in the EATL to HIGH (70%).  The ECMWF EPS probability has increased to 80 – 90%
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 72 – 120 HOURS



EATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


This wave continues to move toward the west in the EATL. The “center” is very difficult to pinpoint, based on current lack of organization.  Based on the NHC location earlier this morning in the TWO graphic, the location would be approximately 12.0N;25.0W.  Current satellite imagery would indicate an approximate location of 11.1N;28.9W. The ECMWF 00Z model run currently indicates conditions for slow organization and development of this wave. Although the model indicates high mid level moisture values and precipitable water (TPW), the wave is currently under about 15 – 20 kts of southeasterly wind shear, and SST and SSTA (Sea Surface Temperatures and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies), although just above the minimum required, are just a tad cool.

The forecast calls for conditions to improve, with 500 mb RH values, TPW values remaining well above the required minimum and development of a radial shear pattern and forecast upper level outflow pattern by days 4 – 5 in the forecast period (96 – 120 hours).  This appears to be when conditions will be the best.  Thereafter, the current forecast from the 00Z model run indicates by Sep. 09, conditions will begin to deteriorate with mid level dry air just beginning to intrude, with an increase in wind shear.  Again, we know conditions can always change, and sometimes in 24 hours or less.  Based on the forecast however, this may only have a brief period for development, unless forecast conditions change.  Again, my opinion is for continued very slow development during the next 48 – 72 hours.  Once this wave gets to 40W -45W, I would expect things to come together at a little quicker rate, as the wave enters an area of warmer SST’s and higher OHC (Ocean Heat Content).
ECMWF MSLP, TPW, 500 MB RH, WIND SHEAR FORECAST DAY 5  




OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

As of analysis, the current steering layer indicated a pretty much east to west flow which the wave is embedded in.  Analysis of various ensemble models indicate 2 different scenarios with the ECMWF EPS indicating a more westward movement, and the GEFS indicating a better chance at re-curvature.  Bear in mind, the following forecast maps are 7 days into the forecast for one, and the guidance models have no defined low level surface circulation to lock onto.  Once a well established low becomes evident (heat and moisture then “focus” in a column within the center), guidance models will then focus on this, and track guidance should be better.  In addition, motion will largely depend on the size and intensity of this, as well as the strength and positioning of the subtropical ridge, and location and strength of any weakness in the western periphery in the ridge.  The forecast maps here are for just a general idea.  Analysis of the current steering layer mean forecast maps would suggest this area makes it a little further west before encountering any possible weakness per the ECMWF EPS solution.
ECMWF EPS

GEFS

I will continue to closely monitor this area for any significant changes to forecast conditions during the next 72 hours.

I have no change in my forecast thinking, in that we should see an increase in activity near the end of the second week of Sep.  Though there are current discrepancies between the ECMWF and GFS ensemble CHI200 anomalies forecasts in relation to the MJO phase space forecast diagrams, the 2 following models have been very good at predicting the MJO evolution so far this season, and still indicate the MJO to rotate into phases 1 and 2, which favors tropical development in the Atlantic / Caribbean basins.  In fact, the ECMWF forecast continues to come better aligned with the S2 model.
MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL

Note the orange, green, and blue ensemble members of the ECMWF model.
ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM

JMA CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST UPDATE SEP. 13 – SEP. 26 (MAP UPDATES ON THURSDAYS)

DEVELOPMENT CORRELATION (DEPICTED BY ORANGE AND RED)


Elsewhere, I am not expecting any development for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS