Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost, and for the children and parents in MN.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   6
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

Not much change in the Atlantic since yesterday.  There is only one area being monitored. One very large tropical wave is noted over Africa near 0 degrees longitude.  A good amount of dry air still persists over much of the Atlantic basin with the SAL still persistent, noted in pink.  
GOES 19 RGB DUST SATELLITE LOOP  


As of the CIMSS TPW 1100Z update, Tropical Waves were noted at the approximate locations.  Black lines represent the approximate wave axis.
CIMSS 11Z TPW ANALYSIS

The NHC has maintained a HIGH (70%) probability for development regarding the tropical wave now in the CATL during the next 7 days.  The ECMWF EPS probability remains at 80%.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 24 – 72 HOURS

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


The wave is looking a little more diffuse than yesterday, and is probably due to some drier air affecting the wave toward the SE as was analyzed in water vapor imagery.  The center of the wave is a little hard to pick out at the moment, however close up analysis of visible satellite loop imagery seems to reveal a “center” may be located at approximately 12.3N;32.0W.  Based on satellite loop imagery and analysis of the current steering layer mean, the wave continues to move slowly to the west.  Future track is still somewhat up in the air, with the continued discrepancy between the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. However based on analysis of forecast steering maps, the subtropical ridge is forecast to expand for a brief period with a westerly flow remaining below 20N.  While either model could be correct, here are some things to remember.  The weaker this wave remains, the further west it will travel prior to being affected by any weakness in the western periphery of the ridge.  If it becomes stronger, then as the wave approaches any weakness, a more WNW component would ensue.  Based on my analysis of various forecast parameters, it appears the wave may remain weaker than projected by the GFS, and as we have seen thus far, it still remains rather disorganized.  Based on analysis of conditions not becoming more conducive during the next 48 – 72 hours, this wave could in fact move further to the west, and could approach close to the Lesser Antilles before a recurve possibly occurs.  Again, this is ALL going to depend on which model handles the forecast conditions the best, the strength of the system, and orientation and location of the ridge and weakness in the ridge.  So, once again, the following ensemble maps should just be considered for a general idea, as this is where the ensembles “think” the wave may be located at the forecast time.
CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN

ECMWF EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST 168 HOURS

The forecast based on model analysis calls for conditions to slowly improve.  Currently, the wave is still under a little bit of wind shear, and is currently fighting some drier air.  However, analysis of 500 mb relative humidity and precipitable water animations indicate slow improvement in moisture, with the wave eventually mixing out the drier air at around 96 hours in the forecast period.  This would coincide with the wave moving into a little warmer SST’s and increased OHC (Ocean Heat Content), so this could actually occur.  Wind shear is also forecast to lower along with the ECMWF indicating development of a radial shear pattern over the wave and divergent pattern aloft.
ECMWF MSLP, TPW, 500 MB RH, WIND SHEAR FORECAST DAY 4  




OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

I will continue to closely monitor this area for any significant changes to forecast conditions during the next 72 hours.

I have no change in my forecast thinking, in that we should see an increase in activity near the end of the second week of  Sep.  Though there are current discrepancies between the ECMWF and GFS ensemble CHI200 anomalies forecasts in relation to the MJO phase space forecast diagrams, the 2 following models have been very good at predicting the MJO evolution so far this season, and still indicate the MJO to rotate into phases 1 and 2, which favors tropical development in the Atlantic / Caribbean basins.  In fact, the ECMWF forecast continues to come better aligned with the S2 model.
MJO FORECAST ACCESS – S2 MODEL

Note the orange, green, and blue ensemble members of the ECMWF model.
ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM

DEVELOPMENT CORRELATION (DEPICTED BY ORANGE AND RED)


Elsewhere, I am not expecting any development for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS