Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 6
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:     0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

Satellite loop imagery indicates about the same as yesterday over the Atlantic, with dry air being the dominant feature.
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


You’ve heard me explain during the past couple of weeks about the MJO forecast going into phases 8 and 1, and possibly 2, and mentioning an increase of development probabilities. The forecast remains the same with the MJO phase space diagram indicating we have entered PHASE 1, and I’ll be monitoring an area off the U.S. NE coastal area, and a Tropical Wave forecast to exit the African coast by tomorrow, to which the NHC has designated a LOW (30%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
12Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

MJO PHASE 8 AND 1 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT (ORANGE / RED COLORING)

MJO PHASE 2 AND 3 OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT

The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation probability forecast is indicating a little bit of an increase over the next 5 days, and the ECMWF MSLP anomalies animation indicates development of a system which may affect the U.S. NE coastal area, and possible development off the coast of Africa.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

I will begin closer to home.

Analysis this morning of the ECMWF global model indicates development of a closed low off the U.S. east coast, by late Thu. / early Fri., and eventually become more symmetric and consolidated. The area is currently associated with a trough of low pressure. Analysis of TPW (surface moisture), relative humidity values (700 mb – 500 mb), and wind shear forecast indicate limited surface moisture, but ample values of mid level moisture with wind shear over the system. Wind shear is forecast to remain over the “center” of the system. Initially, it appeared this may try to transition to subtropical as it is currently designated as warm core. However, based on analysis this morning, in addition to the wind shear, analysis of upper air temperature forecast, and the current day 4 surface analysis map forecast showing an occluded frontal boundary attached to the center of the system, this could very well remain baroclinic, meaning it would be more in the line of a Nor’easter. Once we get a closed and consolidated low pressure system, I’ll have a clearer picture. Regardless, portions of the coastal NEUS area could experience some coastal flooding and minor beach erosion.

The model at the moment indicates forecast surface winds of mid grade tropical storm intensity, and significant wave height along the coast on the order of around 8 – 10 ft., and 14 – 16 ft offshore

I will continue to monitor this for the next 72 – 96 hours
CONUS SATELLITE LOOP

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

EAST COAST MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST

ECMWF SURFACE WINDS FORECAST 96 HOURS

ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST

Elsewhere, a Tropical Wave is forecast to exit Africa by tomorrow. Currently, the ECMWF indicates this may organize in a timely manner. Based on analysis of forecast wind shear, surface moisture, and 700 – 500 mb relative humidity values. While the NHC states that upper level winds are not very conducive, both the ECMWF and the CIMSS Tropical Cyclone site indicate pretty much a radial shear pattern, and a somewhat decent outflow pattern at the 200 mb level.
EATL IR SATELLITE LOOP

CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND 200 MB WINDS


The ECMWF forecast indicates fairly favorable conditions to remain in place for the next 72 hours, before the conditions begin to slowly become unfavorable. Based on this, this wave may very well become a depression, if forecast conditions come to fruition and stay with the wave.

This wave however, should not become a threat for the U.S or the Caribbean, and is forecast to head toward the Cape Verde islands, and I will continue to monitor the area.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.