Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. First, I want to assure the reader that the INVEST in the Gulf is not anything I missed. On my last analysis, models were not indicating this in the Gulf, and it appears to be from a trough split of a frontal boundary that was stationary a couple days ago over a portion of the southern U.S.

Second, the NHC for some reason is holding onto the remnants of DOLLY, to which there is no discernible closed low pressure system on satellite imagery, so this synopsis will focus mainly on INVEST 97L. IF DOLLY does re-develop over the Bahamas, it will literally be a miracle, as CURRENT forecast conditions do not support it.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 4
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems. Subtropical systems will be marked in purple:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


DOLLY (REMNANT) IR SATELLITE LOOP. The “center” is located just along the north central coast of Hispaniola

The NHC has increased the probability for cyclone development regarding PTC 5 to a HIGH (80%) probability during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

As of the 14Z (10:00 a.m. EDT) advisory from the NHC, the following was available on PTC 5:
10:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 31
Location: 27.6°N; 90.8°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb / 29.91 in.
Max sustained: 35 mph

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northwestern Gulf
Coast from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish
Line in Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Port Bolivar to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/311523.shtml?

ADVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT5+shtml/311525.shtml?

NHC LOCAL PRODUCTS (CLICK LINK)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls_at5+shtml/311526.shtml?

KEY MESSAGES (LINKED)


WPC 3 DAY QPF FORECAST

WPC 3 DAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK

CLOSEUP IR, VIS AND WV LOOP PTC 5



The disturbance is currently moving toward the WNW (280 DEG.) based on the ATCF BTK product and current steering layers analysis. Based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps, the disturbance should continue on this track pretty much for the next 24 hours, with a turn to a more NW thereafter. Based on this analysis, I prefer the forecast track of the central cluster of guidance models, as well as the cluster in the ATCF guidance models. Based on this, if nothing changes, the “center” should come in around or east of Baytown during the next 48 hours
RAL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

12Z ATCF GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACKING MAP

Analysis of the current wind shear map indicates a radial shear pattern over this PTC, which is a favorable factor for development since no shear is affecting the system.
PTC 5 WIND SHEAR

Based on analysis of the ECMWF model, the model indicates fairly favorable conditions to remain with the system up until landfall. The model keeps a radial shear pattern over it, with an improved divergent upper pattern, favorable surface moisture based on analysis of TPW, and mid level relative humidity values. Even though some dry air can be seen in the animation entering from the south, it does not appear to affect the core. I am disregarding the current SHIPS report, as it currently indicates a lack of good mid level moisture. Although water vapor satellite loop imagery shows dry air surrounding the system, the immediate vicinity up to and just slightly on the outer perimeter of the banding is surrounded by a good moisture “envelope”. In addition, the current CIMSS TPW loop indicates high TPW associated with the system. Based on this analysis, PTC 5 could become a depression, and quite possibly become a very short lived tropical storm, just prior to coming ashore. Until we can see what actually happens, I have to concur with the NHC intensity forecast.
RAL 12Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 27.8N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/0000Z 28.3N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/1200Z 29.1N 93.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 29.9N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
48H 02/1200Z 31.1N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

I will continue to monitor this area closely during the next 24 – 48 hours.

Elsewhere, I do not expect and tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.