I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


I am using the 11:00 a.m. info on CRISTOBAL.

The NHC once again has 3 areas on the GTWO map. T.S. CRISTOBAL, INVEST 92L, and DISTURBANCE #2
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

First, we’ll begin with “Tropical Storm”? CRISTOBAL. Well, the NHC does it yet again, naming a system THAT SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN NAMED, as it DOESN’T MEET THE CRITERIA:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Organized deep convection about a well defined center must be maintained for 24 hours, not what is seen in satellite loop images as a sheared, naked swirl. The criteria also states the cyclone must be WARM CORE. This is 2 strikes against naming this, as we see lack of organized deep convection, and the system is NOT even warm core, based on the current thermal diagram from the HWRF model. So, shame on you NHC.

CRISTOBAL VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP

HWRF THERMAL DIAGRAM

As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT (3:00 p.m. GMT) advisory from the NHC, the following was available on T. S. CRISTOBAL:
11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 12
Location: 36.7°N; 43.0°W
Moving: E 25 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in.
Max sustained: 45 mph

Based on analysis of forecast steering maps, I agree with the NHC current forecast track, and CRISTOBAL should make more of a NE track in the next 24 – 36 hours.

Based on analysis of forecast wind shear, and surface to mid level moisture, wind shear is forecast to continue to increase, along with intrusion of dry air at the mid levels beginning in about 36 – 38 hours. Based on this, I expect this to weaken, and dissipate by around Thursday. This will be my last update on this system.
NHC CRISTOBAL FORECAST TRACK

The NHC has designated a HIGH (80%) probability of tropical cyclone development for INVEST 92L

As of the 18Z (2:00 p.m. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 92L:
2:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 12
Location: 10.5°N; 39.4°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
CLOSEUP IR LOOP INVEST 92L

The disturbance was currently moving to the west at around 16 mph. In approximately 24 – 36 hours, I expect more of a turn to the WNW based on current forecast steering layers maps. Based on this, I prefer the current HFWI forecast track at the moment.
RAL 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on my analysis, SST’s along the current forecast track, INVEST 92L will remain in waters of 28.5C to 29.0C. Based on analysis of current and forecast wind shear, a weak radial shear pattern is in place and should remain with the system for at least the next 36 hours, and this system could become a depression, and possibly a tropical storm. By 48 hours in the period, based on both the ECMWF model and SHIPS diagnostic report, wind shear is forecast to increase from the west. Although the surface to mid level moisture forecast indicates favorable precipitable water and mid level RH, the increase in wind shear should pretty much cause this system to begin to weaken as it approaches the Lesser Antilles
RAL CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE 18Z

I will continue to monitor this area during the next 72 hours for any significant changes in forecast conditions.

The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (40%) probability for cyclone development during the next 7 days for the disturbance in the EATL:

EATL IR SATELLITE LOOP

Based on analysis of satellite loop imagery and forecast steering analysis, the wave is moving toward the west, and should maintain a W to WNW track at least during the next 72 hours. Guidance models have not been initialized, and exact track is not available, although the NHC outline is pretty much the forecast general direction.

This wave and INVEST 92L are close to each other, and competing with each other for development. Based on analysis of current wind shear from CIMSS, there is a radial shear pattern over the disturbance at the moment, and based on current analysis of the ECMWF, shear is forecast to remain low, with the radial shear pattern remaining over the system for at least the next 72 to 96 hours. Beyond 96 hours, it appears that some drier air may filter into the system, which could halt any further development. IF and when this becomes an INVEST, I will have better info from SHIPS diagnostic reports.

I will continue to monitor this area during the next 72 hours for any significant changes in forecast conditions.

ECMWF CURRENT 120 HOUR ANIMATION

Elsewhere, I do not expect any tropical cyclone development during the next 5 – 7 days.

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.