Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. Since my Mrs. is at work today, and the NHC has added the probability regarding the wave soon to exit the African coast, I decided to open the office.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 4
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems. Subtropical systems will be marked in purple:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)

The NHC has designated INVEST 96L as Tropical Storm DOLLY.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm DOLLY:
11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 27
Location: 13.6°N; 38.7°W
Moving: W at 24 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb / 29.74 in.
Max sustained: 40 mph

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Dolly.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/271447.shtml

ADVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT4+shtml/271449.shtml?

KEY MESSAGES (LINKED)

CLOSEUP IR, VIS AND WV LOOP DOLLY



Satellite imagery shows the COC north of the convection, and a tremendous amount of dry air surrounding the storm.

Tropical Storm DOLLY was moving toward the W at 24 mph. Based on the analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, DOLLY should continue on her current track through the remainder of today, prior to the track becoming more of a WNW motion within 24 hours. I currently prefer the HWFI track guidance.
NHC FORECAST TRACKING MAP

RAL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

Analysis of the current wind shear map still indicates somewhat of a radial shear pattern over DOLLY, which is still a favorable condition for further slow development. I still am not in total agreement on the naming of this, although satellite presentation looks better than the last 3 systems, using a satellite measurement tool, the organized deep convection mentioned by the NHC, is 75 miles SSE of the COC.
CIMSS DOLLY WIND SHEAR

Based on analysis of both the ECMWF model, and current SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme) diagnostic report, drier air is forecast to begin wrapping into the storm in approximately 36 hours. This can cause the following:
Suppressed Thunderstorms: Tropical storms need deep, persistent thunderstorms releasing heat to fuel their rotation. Dry air kills these updrafts by evaporating moisture before it can condense into clouds and rain.

Downdraft Creation: As dry air mixes into the system, rain falling through it evaporates rapidly. This evaporation cools the air, creating sinking downdrafts that choke off the warm, rising air the storm needs to survive.

Erosion from the Inside: Dry air can wrap into the core or middle levels of a cyclone. This erodes the inner ring of thunderstorms around the center, disrupting the circulation and causing the system to disorganize.

Wind shear is also forecast to begin to increase within the same time frame, with shear becoming more zonal, thereby disrupting the radial pattern. Based on my analysis of these forecast conditions IF they are accurate, DOLLY should begin to degrade into an open wave prior to moving into the northern Leeward islands. Based on this, DOLLY has a short window of opportunity of about 24 – 36 hours to slightly intensify, and I concur somewhat with the NHC intensity forecast, in that I feel with the conditions that are forecast, unless she can mix out the surrounding dry air, I feel she’ll begin to weaken sooner.
RAL 12Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Intensity guidance was still cycling.

NHC FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 13.6N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 13.7N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 14.4N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 15.1N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 15.9N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/1200Z 17.7N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
96H 31/1200Z…DISSIPATED

I will continue to monitor this area closely during the next 24 – 72 hours.

I am currently monitoring the tropical wave south of the Cape Verde islands.

Elsewhere, I do not expect and tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 96 HOURS

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.