Good day everyone!

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence. 

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics. Since my Mrs. is at work today, and the NHC has added the probability regarding the wave soon to exit the African coast, I decided to open the office.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 4
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems. Subtropical systems will be marked in purple:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)


AFRICA IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGES)

The NHC is issuing advisories on the remnant of Tropical Storm DOLLY.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates tropical wave locations as of 06Z this morning.
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on the remnant of
Tropical Storm DOLLY:
11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 28
Location: 15.0°N; 46.79W
Moving: W at 25 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in.
Max sustained: 40 mph

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Dolly.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/281445.shtml

ADVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT4+shtml/281448.shtml?

KEY MESSAGES (LINKED)

DOLLY CLOSEUP IR, VIS AND WV LOOP



Satellite imagery shows the COC north of the convection, and a tremendous amount of dry air surrounding the storm which has now made its way into the center of circulation.

The remnant of Tropical Storm DOLLY was moving toward the W at 24 mph. Based on the analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, the remnant of DOLLY should continue on her current track through the remainder of today, prior to the track becoming slightly more of a WNW motion within 24 hours. I prefer the majority of the track guidance close to the OFCI NHC track.
NHC FORECAST TRACKING MAP

RAL 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

ATCF GUIDANCE

Analysis of the current wind shear map indicates the shear pattern over DOLLY is now zonal, and is now on the order of around 20 kts. This, along with the forward speed of the wave is producing a shear effect of around 23 kts, thereby tilting the system which is now exposing the center.
CIMSS DOLLY WIND SHEAR

Wind shear is also forecast to continue to increase, as well as dry air from 700 – 500 mb. Based on this, the wave should continue to degrade, and I do not expect any further intensification. In addition, the NHC found no westerly wind flow on the southern portion of the system. In a nutshell, DOLLY is toast.

The NHC does however mention in their discussion of a slim possibility of regeneration in a few days, as some models have been indicating this on and IVO of the Bahamas. Right now, I am not expecting this unless forecast conditions are shown to improve during the next few days. From the NHC discussion:
Some global models hint at the possibility that Dolly could regenerate in several days, but at this time there is poor agreement on where and when this might occur. Should conditions
warrant, further information regarding the potential redevelopment of the remnants of Dolly will be provided in subsequent Tropical Weather Outlooks.

I will continue to monitor this area closely during the next 24 – 72 hours.

Elsewhere, I do not expect and tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 72 HOURS

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.