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Orgo-Life the new way to the future Advertising by AdpathwayDisclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
Good day everyone!
If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.
The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES : 3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1 – 2
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 8
TOTAL HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP 
The NHC issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)
The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE
The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS
72 – 120 HOURS
As of the 15Z (11:00 a.m.) ATCF BTK report, the following information was available:
11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 07
Location: 22.4°N; 93.6W
Moving: ESE 8 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53 in.
Max sustained: 45 mph
PLEASE FOLLOW STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM YOUR LOCAL NWS OFFICE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast from A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast
Mississippi River eastward to Yankeetown, Florida.
Bay St. Louis, Mississippi to Indian Pass, Florida.
from the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line, Louisiana to west
of Bay St. Louis, and from east of Indian Pass to Aucilla River,
Florida.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for… A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown
* Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass
* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line to west of Bay St. Louis
* East of Indian Pass to Aucilla River
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071453.shtml
ADVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT4+shtml/071456.shtml?
LOCAL NWS HURRICANE PRODUCTS LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls_at4+shtml/071527.shtml?
The following is hurricane preparation information:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/2026/09/04/hurricane-preparedness-information-guide-issued-sep-04-2026-1235-p-m-est/
Satellite loop imagery indicates the system continues to become slowly better organized
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IR, VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
Based on information in the NHC UPDATE, the system was moving ENE at 8 MPH. Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps and current guidance, this motion should continue for approximately the next 24 – 36 hours prior to making a more northerly motion toward the NE. Based on this, I currently agree with the NHC forecast track and the HWFI model track.
RAL ISAIAS EARLY TRACK GUIDANCE
NHC FORECAST TRACK
Analysis this morning still indicates that wind shear was located over the center, however associated with a radial shear pattern centered south of the center of the storm. However, analysis of the 200 mb winds indicated excellent outflow still remains over the storm. Isaias is still in an environment where surface to mid level moisture remains very favorable.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR
UPPER LEVEL WINDS
CIMSS OHC
Based on analysis of the ECMWF, the radial shear pattern is forecast to remain for approx. the next 24 – 36 hours with shear increasing shortly thereafter. However, the Gulf is forecast pretty much to remain within the right rear entrance region of a jetstreak in the sub-tropical jet, which provides divergence in the upper atmosphere, and could allow for an upper outflow channel to remain with the system. In fact, the ECMWF is showing an improvement in the outflow pattern and for it to remain about 12 – 24 hours prior to landfall. Thereafter, shear is forecast to take over, and dry air is forecast to intrude at the 500 mb level.
The following article explains outflow structure and rapid intensification of a hurricane. This is what occurred with Hurricane Michael a few years ago.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/149/12/MWR-D-21-0141.1.xml
Another item noted was OHC (Ocean Heat Content). Based on this, the OHC is at the minimum values needed for rapid intensification (50+ KJ/cm2). Based on this, although some shear may be in place, the excellent outflow channel in the upper level wind pattern should offset the shear. Based on this, I cannot now rule out a brief period of RI. The NHC indicates this in the intensity forecast and forecast discussion, and the SHIPS report indicates a 36% of an increase of 25 kts in 24 hours. Based on this, although it will remain to be seen, I concur at the moment with the NHC intensity forecast.
NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INIT 07/1500Z 22.4N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 22.7N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 23.4N 90.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 24.6N 89.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 26.6N 88.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 29.2N 87.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 32.2N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 38.0N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z…DISSIPATED
The Mechanism: The right rear entrance region features an ageostrophic wind component that pulls air northward toward the jet core, creating massive horizontal divergence aloft. [1, 2]
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