The United Nations has formally conceded that the world will warm past 1.5°C. The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, released Wednesday, Oct. 21, by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), says the goal now is to keep that overshoot as small and short as possible, then bring temperatures back down by 2100.

The report also singles out the United States. U.S. greenhouse gas emissions rose by about 133 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025, an increase that far exceeded any other country's, according to AFP's reporting on the report. NPR reported that the U.S. was the only major economy where planet-warming pollution increased dramatically last year, leaving it tied with Russia for the highest per-person emissions among G20 members.

The findings land weeks before the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Türkiye, where the second Global Stocktake begins. For U.S. readers, the report connects two things often discussed separately: domestic energy choices and the global temperature path that shapes future heat waves, floods and wildfire seasons.

The Shift From Holding the Line to Coming Back Down

The chance of holding warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot "is now gone," UNEP wrote in a companion explainer. In its place, the report describes a "lowest possible" overshoot pathway in which warming peaks at 1.7 to 1.8°C around mid-century and returns to 1.5°C or below by 2100, with about a 50% chance.

That pathway is steep. Global emissions would need to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all compared with 2025 — cuts of about 5.7% a year. Even if every country fully delivers its current climate pledge, emissions would drop only 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres framed the shift in a message on the report. "Overshoot is not surrender," he said, according to UN News.

America Stands Apart in the 2025 Numbers

Globally, emissions in 2025 were roughly flat compared with 2024, though carbon dioxide from fossil fuels kept rising. Emissions from the G20, which accounts for about three-quarters of the global total, grew 0.7% excluding land use. Among the six biggest emitters, preliminary data showed increases in the United States, China and Indonesia and declines in India, Russia and the European Union, according to AFP.

The report ties the U.S. increase to higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal power. Reporting by The New York Times, carried by The Philadelphia Inquirer, added that data center construction for artificial intelligence and a cold North American winter that boosted heating demand also played a role, and that recent U.S. policy changes are projected to add 0.9 gigatons of emissions by 2030, roughly Japan's annual total.

UNEP said its warming projections are worse than last year's in part because of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, along with revised estimates of historical emissions. Under current policies, warming could reach 2.8°C this century. Full delivery of national pledges would hold it to 2.6°C, and adding net-zero targets would bring it to 2.1°C.

The U.S. government disputes the findings. A statement included in the report says the U.S. "does not endorse or agree with its analysis or conclusions," according to NPR. The report also projects that U.S. emissions will still decline over time, just more slowly than under earlier policies.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said the consequences will not stop at any border, warning of "impacts on every nation on the planet, including the U.S."

The Cuts on the Table for 2030, 2035 and 2040

The report translates the pathway into specific benchmarks. By 2035, the world would need to at least triple renewable electricity capacity, cut the share of coal, oil and gas in total energy supply by at least 55%, 15% and 5%, cut coal-fired power by at least 75% and reduce methane by 25%, all relative to 2025. By 2040, coal power would be effectively phased out, and the coal, oil and gas cuts rise to at least 75%, 30% and 35%.

There is evidence that such shifts are possible. UNEP found global renewable capacity has grown three times faster than expected since 2015, with solar build-out seven times faster. More than 220 policy evaluations showed electricity-sector policies cut emissions by an average of 9%, and carbon pricing achieved 5% to 13% reductions.

Anne Olhoff, director of the UNEP-Copenhagen Climate Centre and lead author, put the timing plainly. "The longer we wait, the larger the risk that we jeopardize the temperature goal," she said.

Limits, Uncertainty and the Road to COP31

This is an assessment, not a single peer-reviewed study. It pools national inventories and modeling, and the 2025 country figures are preliminary. The return-to-1.5°C pathway carries only about even odds and depends on removing roughly 320 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the air this century, about eight years of current global emissions, which the report itself calls uncertain given technical and economic hurdles. The report also warns that every five years of emissions at current levels adds about 0.1°C to peak warming.

For households, the most direct link is energy. The same rising electricity demand that pushed U.S. emissions up is reshaping how utilities plan power plants and grids — decisions made in state rate cases and federal permitting where residents can comment. Readers can follow the official U.S. greenhouse gas inventory and their state utility commission's dockets to see how that demand is being met.

What comes next is diplomatic. COP31 opens next month in Türkiye, where countries will begin the second Global Stocktake and could adopt quantified 2035 and 2040 goals. The bottom line: the 1.5°C line will be crossed, the U.S. is now an outlier among major economies on emissions growth, and the size of the overshoot depends on decisions made this decade.

What Readers Want to Know

What did the UN report find?

UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2026 says warming will exceed 1.5°C and outlines a pathway to limit the peak to 1.7 to 1.8°C and return to 1.5°C by 2100, with about a 50% chance.

How much did U.S. emissions rise?

About 133 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2025, the largest increase of any country, driven by higher electricity demand and more coal power, according to reporting on the report.

Does the U.S. government accept the findings?

No. A U.S. statement in the report says it does not endorse or agree with the analysis or conclusions and did not provide comments.

What cuts does the report say are needed?

Global emissions would need to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040 compared with 2025 levels.

What does "overshoot" mean?

It means temporarily exceeding 1.5°C of warming, then bringing temperatures back down through deep emission cuts and removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

What happens next?

Countries meet at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, next month, where the second Global Stocktake begins, and new 2035 and 2040 benchmarks could be debated.