Updated since I posted the blog :) 
seriously cannot stop laughing.

70% now on 95L
will update later today in real time

..........

Journalism 101.

Local story important.

Especially if we might get Dex.

Or TD whatever......

...now at 70% we could get something today.

Writing a blog on the tropics is a difficult journey where typing fast helps as while you are typing often a new model run is coming in. Model runs come in fast like waves on a beach, each a bit different from the rest but similar. Sometimes there's this one wave that crests higher and slams the beach harder and creates ripples of foam at your feet while the other waves did not. And, you remember that wave......long after you left the beach. You remember the look of the wave, the sound of the wave and the texture of the wave as it wrapped around your toes with lots of white foam.

Personally while writing this morning I hoped I'd get this blog done before the NHC changed the odds to Red Hot 70% as they did at 2 PM a while after I posted the blog. 

When I was little my best friend and I would play with Tarot Cards. I love color and pictures and it was way more fun than my Grandma Mary's Ouija Board that seemed awfully static and I was way too skeptical she was moving the planchette (pointer) around the board to spell out the answer she wanted me to see. It's a French word "planchette" as she got it in New Orleans where she'd lived there with relatives. I'm fairly sure back in the day the Ouija Board and it's planchette was our  modern day version of the GFS when wondering "are we going to get one of those terribles storms this year" was often asked every year July through September.

Forecast Models, especially long range models such as that run of the GFS, remind me of my best friend and I sitting cross legged on the floor with our long hair flowing doing Tarot cards. We'd ask a question and when the cards didn't come out the way we hoped or some card bothered us we would decide to use a different deck of Tarot Cards.  Or we'd simply reshuffle the cards carefully and and hope they would show us what we hoped to see on the next spread.  Hope springs eternal for young kids or as adults running the models, especially the GFS tho the GFS may be losing it's throne to the AI models. Time will tell.

People watch models obsessively in August while waiting for the real storms to form and roll across the Atlantic; especially when we have an odd season and everyone is waiting for the MDR in the Atlantic to wake up and spew forth spinning storms. After years of the GFS spinning out a scenario everyone wants or is curious of or afraid of......people get upset when it's quiet and not showing anything much will develop. Well, the GFS is spinning out solutions once again with multiple storms doing a Conga Line into the High. The African Waves perk up after they pass the MDR and are North of PR and ESE of Florida. Basically the MDR so far is unfriendly. You can run models all day and now with the new AI models you can literally run them until the next set of model runs come out.

Or you can run the models, look at satellite imagery and the current synoptics of what is really going on and see which model aligns more with reality and where we are going in the realm of CLIMO and then wait and see what develops in real time.

I love satellite imagery. I love the Water Vapor Loop. I love the Mimic. I love the various settings of the COD site :) and there are so various satellite imagery to use and yet......  Everyone waits for the next model runs to come out and show them want them want to see the way people at Vegas kiss the dice before they roll them or Linda and I would reshuffle the deck or find the other set of Tarot Cards.

Remember this!

As for me and the Tarot Cards they have mostly parted ways though at times I look. The Arthurian one is fun as I have a degree in English (really!!) and it keeps showing Uther Pendragon and this son Arthur.