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UPDATED Tropical Storm Erin at 11! Cone Discussion and Thoughts ... Will Update Later Today in Real Time.

6 days ago 4

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Done Deal! TS Erin.

Little dip to the WSW ish

Timing and degrees matter.

Discussion below on timing.
Degrees matter as in hitting the forecast point.

So now we have forecast points and discussion.

Not much to add from earlier.

Moving slower at first...

....then picks up speed.
If forecast verifies.

Will update blog later today.

Everyone should watch it...

...pay attention to any changes.

It's a good reminder to be Hurriane Ready!

Tidbits from NHC Forecast Discussion (link below)

Motion should continue slightly South of Due West ....

Cone stays on South edge of much of the guidance, models....

After 120 Hours the pull poleward may begin.

Intensity forecast "tricky" due to the small size of the core of Erin.

Small systems prone to ramp up or down fast.

After 48 hours water is warmer and a juicier environment (my word.. Mike would say Moist)

Long range models show Erin becoming a Major Hurricane.

I'll add Papin does a great discussion. Link below, please read.

Easy to understand if you read slowly and after a while it makes sense. Again words and details matter.

Wind Probs.

Obviously Virgin Islands watching..

NHC will initiate advisories on
Tropical Storm ERIN at 11!

Stay tuned.
Keep reading as I wrote the blog an hour ago.

Listening to Mike talk while I type my thoughts...

..thoughts formulated earlier this morning.

There are time stamps there....

...I would not go out beyond 4 days currently.

Only constant is things change.

Got a long way to go....

Steering currents out in the Pacific...

So let it go... watch it spin.

Read NHC forecast discussion.

Alan Severe on X posted this.

ASCAT shows it's a storm.

Or TD

NHC makes that call and it'll be soon.

Will update later today.

Where do I begin....to tell the story of a storm that's just being born today on August 11th! So much has to do with timing. How fast it moves or how slow it moves or does it stall somewhere. How fast are the fronts moving and we've had fronts all Summer. How fast does the High change, rearrange and dig in somewhere? There's just so many factors in the equation and the models almost complicate it as we have a hundred million model images in our head and most of them are junk as the factors that will steer Erin have sometimes not even formed and once they do it's all in flow, in motion in real time so that is why the models change so much. The models react to and try to readjust to the steering currents now 97L expected to be Erin soon.

So it's a crowded field. 97L the Star.

Soon to be Erin is far to the North around 18N that does not mean it can't hit the Carolinas. It doesn't mean it can't impact Mid Atlantic... watch out Long Island and Cape Cod. Canada really, really pay attention. The new Yellow Circle below basically is the circle that lingered near Carolinas and OBX. It all depends on timing with fronts and what else is going on out in front of it. Remember hurricanes are want to stall and spin North of the Bahamas and off the Carolina Coast..not a prediction just a reminder and any stall or change in forward speed allows it to miss turn or catch a ride out to sea.

An example is that 97L has been moving slowly. 96L had a long moisture tale that might call out to a faster moving 97L but that tale is fading away as you can see in the visible imagery on the Main Page of the 2 Day Forecast from NHC.