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Waiting on Invest Status. 70% Red in the 7 Day. 30% in the 2 Day. NHC Pulls Plug on Lead Wave That Juiced Up the Path for our Red AOI.

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BayNews9 awesome page.

The road out ahead of our RED wave..

...has been juiced up by the old wave.

it's a constant process.

Think of this as a good blocker who is blocking for a great running back in Football. The Running Back becomes famous, rarely does the blocker though sometimes. The blocker doing his job, guarantees the RB can take off and pick up yardage and the coveted First Down. Also when there is SAL the same thing happens sometimes with early waves that try and plough though the SAL, give it up to the dust and coughing, sputter away into nowhere land. The wave behind it has more breathing room to make a run or the roses so to speak or a touchdown (Landfall) so pay attention to the whole ballet of satellite imagery, don't just stare at the AOI now currently 70% Red. And, speaking of RED let's look at SAL maps showing where the Sahran Dust is currently.

...in punctuated by dark colors is where a wave busted thru.

SAL is the blocker in football.

Wider view shows the bigger story.

Main basic points to remember...

..remember today and every day.

Whenever we have a 70% chance of development..

..especially in El Nino year or in SAL season this is true.

SAL lightens usually in September.

That is why September is Prime Time in the tropics.

Well, one reason that ..more on water temps later.

Again Football

August is PreSeason
September is Prime Time.

So before rather than showing models that change on every run.. these facts need to be remembered.

1. Nothing happens in a vacuum ...pay attention to the whole picture on satellite imagery.

2. SAL is strong, though it has some lighter areas where waves went previously.

3. Shear is there as well waiting for this wave that is taking it's time to become an Invest.

4. Big waves take longer to pull together a coherent center.

5. Without a coherent center models are stabs in the dark, trying hard to help guide us.

6. Models offer suggestions and then they do it again later in the day.

7. If a wave is dawdling it misses the time frame of the previous guidance models.

8. If that happens the models begin to pull more to the South and get further West.

9. IF the wave suddenly wraps fast* then next model runs may pull more to the North.

10. *Not easy to do battling shear and dry air and lower than perferred water temperatures.

11. Water in the MDR is still warming up and less warmth in the water slows development.

12. Take all models with a grain of sea salt and don't expect early models to totally verify. They do however show the general pattern, but they also evolve in real time.

We are far from Prime Time in the tropics...

...and the water heats up more each day.

Why we worry this time of year "close in"

where the water is HOT!

Takes so many factors to get an actual named storm to develop, more so a real Hurricane and more so in an El Nino year ...especially one where the Canary Current that impacts that part of the Atlantic has been wonky. So stay tuned, this is not a sprint, it's a marathon as a friend reminded me. It's also a bit of a hurdle race as the wave (if it becomes Cristobal) has to jump thru SAL, jump over shear and get to near where the water is warm and welcoming. Longer it takes to develop it gets further West, unless some huge cold front moves down fast allowing it to make a hard right to race off after it. Models below.