Horizontal...disorganized but has convection.

There's been talk something will form down the road in the Caribbean, and that's not surprising as this is Show Time for that area. Usually a weak, westbound wave kicks off some spin as the wave meets the CAG. Timing is very important and any fronts moving down into the Carib set up a battleground zone. Where the two connect IF it develops into Melissa only then can we talk about specifics. There are even models that take something from EPAC into Carib. Models have been told to "fetch" and they are trying hard.  Various runs of models have shown development. I'll add mostly very long range, less reliable, models develop the wave. Remember fronts can shear a storm and fronts can pick the storm up and fronts can sweep them out to sea. High pressure associated with a front can take hold and keep it going West into the EPAC (long shot but it's also on the table) so for now we are enjoying blue skies, cool temperatures and a bit of Fall color showing in places where it begins to show in late October. Everything is relative and from my perspective in the Piedmont of North Carolina this is when trees begin to turn. Dogwood first, maple later.

That's really it for now. I don't want to speculate on long range models. I want to watch the wave a bit as I have been offline and I want to get a real feel for it. And if I was a gambling person I'd gamble it'll be picked up out to sea and swung out of the Carib to the NE. Degrees matter so where and when matters and trying to believe the USA can get off this there with just weak systems making landfall, but trust me wishing and hoping don't make things come true always. So stay prepared, stay aware and enjoy the beautiful weather. 

Besos BobbiStorm

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Elsewhere whatever....