Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

Thanks to all of you that still follow my forecasts.  I truly appreciate each and every one of you!

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

I will be using the ECMWF model for the main forecast graphics for winter weather forecasts.  Over my years of forecasting, I prefer this model, as numerous articles depict the ECMWF to be the more accurate model as compared to the GFS.  Here is an excerpt from an article I found:

The ECMWF model’s resolution is 9km or about 5.5 miles. The GFS has a resolution of 25km or roughly 15.5 miles. This resolution is the distance between two points on a grid that the weather model uses. The smaller the number, the better the resolution/quality of a forecast.  The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is another global numerical weather prediction model that is highly regarded for its accuracy. It employs advanced data assimilation techniques and sophisticated numerical algorithms to simulate atmospheric processes. The ECMWF model provides high-resolution forecasts for various meteorological variables, enabling forecasters to make more precise predictions.  According to current weather forecasting standards, the ECMWF model is generally considered the most accurate for predicting snowfall totals, often performing slightly better than American weather models like the GFS.

For forecast temperatures less than 72 hours out in the forecast period, I prefer using the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model.  This is what we refer to as a regional model, vice a global model, with its forecast grids within the North American continent.

Should a forecast indicate very cold temperatures, or cold snowy weather:

The following link is from the Animal Welfare Act, and provides guidelines for temperatures regarding your animal:
ANIMAL WELFARE ACT
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/ac-tech-note-temp-req-dogs.pdf

Based on analysis this morning, and area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the Northern Plains region, and move eastward.  As this low deepens over the Great Lakes region, it will continue to move toward the east and affect the NE and New England areas.  The low is forecast to produce winds up to gale force offshore, and seas of possibly 20 ft. offshore and over the Gulf of Maine.
CONUS SATELLITE LOOP

WPC 12Z SURFACE MAP

ECMWF MSLP, SURFACE WIND, AND WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST



As the low moves away, high pressure will briefly build, with a couple more rounds of low pressure moving eastward across the U.S.  OOA. Nov. 09, a large and strong high pressure system is forecast to build in over the Central U.S., along with an associated strong cold front.  The flow around this high will allow for some very cold POLAR air to plunge southward. 

WPC SURFACE MAP 10 NOV.

I’ve already seen a graphic or two hyping this as an “ARCTIC BLAST”.  Based on the minimum temperature forecast at the moment, this will be POLAR air.  The following is from the Weather Prediction website, run by meteorologist Jeff Haby:
Arctic air tends to be colder than polar air. In the air mass source regions, the temperatures of arctic air can reach far below 0 F, such as in the -30’s to -40’s below zero. Polar air tends to not start out as cold as this. Polar air can be below 0 F but tends to not get down to the extreme cold temperatures that arctic air does. As a consequence, polar air modifies faster to warmer temperatures as it moves into the middle latitudes. In the central and southern U.S., polar air can drop temperatures into the 40’s, 30’s, 20’s and 10’s degree F for example. Arctic air though can drop temperatures into the 10’s, 0’s, and below 0 degree F temperatures in these same regions.
ECMWF MINIMUM AND APPARENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOV. 10, 2025
SEUS


OHIO VALLEY


NEUS


SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.


Currently, there is very little in the way of winter precipitation during the next 5 days.
ECMWF 120 HOUR FORECAST KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTALS AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY TYPE


The following are temperatures for the succeeding day from the issuance of this synopsis
MINIMUM AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES NOV. 05, 2025




MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NOV. 05, 2025


WUNDERGROUND FROST AND FREEZE FORECAST FOR NOV. 05, 2025

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST