The people you hope would be best informed about the imminent threat of climate breakdown would be members of parliament. After all, droughts and storms affecting their constituents have been a recurring news item. The need to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 requires an informed debate among parties.

The key question on which the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, in 2022, reached hard-won scientific consensus was when CO₂ emissions need to peak for a realistic chance of keeping global temperature increases below 1.5C, the target set by the 2015 Paris agreement as too dangerous to exceed. The answer, given great prominence in the report and the media coverage of it, was this year, 2025.

Over to a representative sample of UK MPs (admittedly taken before the last general election), who were asked which year emissions had to peak to avoid exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Offered five-year intervals up to 2050, only 15 of the 100 surveyed answered correctly, while 30% said 2040 or later. Labour MPs were more likely to know the correct answer than Conservatives.