2 PM out a bit early.

Dry, stable air limiting development now.

TD could form middle or late next week.

I know sounds like 91L ...right?

Right, but very little has changed.

CLIMO favors development.

MJO may move into the Atlantic Basin.

Forecasts this year for MJO have been wrong.

SAL is there but not as strong.

Let's look at our newest area of interest.

Wearing a Fall Orange outfit! 

40% in next 7 days - Zero today.

We are back watching the East Atlantic
African Tropical Waves.

Lead wave 40% Orange chances.

Behind the lead weave is another strong wave.

I'm going to try and keep this short today. I haven't blogged for the last two days as there wasn't much to say and I was out of words anyway. This is Prime Time for waves that roll off of Africa westbound in what is usually a more hospitable environment. And, even then there's always some issue though this year the problems have been much stronger than the waves. If not now when? As September fades into October, generally, we begin to look closer in and down in the Caribbean. Models like it, though heard GFS suddenly does not and fairly sure that won't impress the forecasters at the NHC as much as the EURO and ensemble models and the more accurate AI models. And, in truth it's up to the wave to continue generating convection in what's been a dry environment as it heads into more dry air and wind shear; more than what a tropical wave not in 2025 would find out in the usually welcoming Atlantic. 

There is a wave behind it and more so behind that wave is another wave. We have a line up of suspects and in regular years your usual suspects would get a name and some would be Fish Storms fast and generally one very well organized one would be the one to make it across to the Islands and possibly our Mainland up above.

So I put this image below. It's Wind Shear, one of many charts, but it's easy to understand if you remember green means "go for development" and red means "stop sign, my wind shear is gonna blow you apart" and yes it's that simple.

IF it can stay within the green lines.

And if the wind shear stays this way...

It has a chance to develop gradually.

Strength and wrap better closer to the Islands.

Remember tho Wind Shear is fluid...

..and models aren't great forecasting changes.

Models this year have not been great at all.

Though every model has it's day!

It's an unusual year.