I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 12
TOTAL HURRICANES :      4 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:         5
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

WEATHERBELL (Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi)
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 13
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3 – 5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


Satellite loop imagery indicates the Atlantic remains quiet, with water vapor imagery indicating quite a bit of dry air in the Atlantic basin.

The NHC in the 12Z Surface Analysis indicated tropical waves near 35 – 40W, 50 – 58W, and 88W
CIMSS 12Z TPW MAP (WAVE AXIS’ ARE IN BLACK)

The NHC indicates a LOW (20%) probability for tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The current ECMWF Cyclone Formation Probability forecast from 12Z has increased its probability for cyclone development from 30% to 70% during the next 72 hours.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY


Based on my analysis today of various models, and going with the ECMWF, the model develops a 1012mb closed low pressure area off the coast of N.C. by 2:00 a.m. Mon. morning. Conditions are still forecast to be pretty much conducive by that time with a reduction in wind shear, and development of a radial shear pattern (although not shown in the forecast map, a decent radial pattern does develop). Surface (PWAT) to mid level (700mb) moisture will be conducive. The 200mb streamline forecast indicates a slight improvement of upper level divergence though marginal. The presence of some divergence in the upper atmosphere and favorable shear pattern with reduced shear could allow for some slow development of this low pressure area, which could lead to development of a Tropical Depression. This low is forecast to develop at the tail end of a forecast stationary front. IF anyone would like to know how this occurs, please email me at the email address at the end of this synopsis. However, for this to be classified should development occur, it would have to become detached from the frontal boundary.

As far as forecast motion, a lot of the ensemble tracks I have seen posted take the low westward. At this time, theses forecasts should be disregarded, as the future motion will all depend on EXACTLY where this low may develop, and future low level steering currents, as there is currently nothing for guidance to focus on as far as an LLC. It was noted in my analysis that the ECMWF steers it to the SE, and current forecast low level steering suggests a SE track. Again, this will not be a known factor until a closed LLC develops, and guidance models have a solid center to focus on.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES, PWAT, 700 MB RH, WIND SHEAR, AND 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST 42 HOURS FROM 12Z





I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes in the forecast.

Elsewhere, I do not expect tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 – 7 days

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.